Here we are folks, just a few weeks away from the start of the 2015 MLB Season! Of all the sports one can handicap, baseball provides us (handicappers) with the most data, which can be utilized to put us in a great position to make a profit. Baseball has always been my most profitable sport. Last season, my MLB Picks finished 270-232 (53.78%) +$3,000 Overall for $100 bettors with a ROI of 2.15, and an Average Odds Per Pick at -127. My MLB Totals finished 126-108 (51.94%) +$5,194 for $100 bettors with a ROI of 7.05 and an Average Odds Per Pick at -109. I handicap based off a computer algorithm I have written. As you can see above, my strongest area of focus when wagering on baseball is Totals.
This Blog was written in a very basic sense and is targeted towards the beginner MLB bettor. I will try my best to stay away from advanced terminology and confusing literature. My goal with this blog is to educate those who aren’t as experienced with betting baseball and to hopefully help others avoid any major pitfalls.
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Handicapping Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitchers play a very HUGE role in how the game is played out. You simply cannot go off team pitching stats when handicapping. This is a huge mistake to only go off the team’s pitching stats. Each starting pitcher has specific and unique traits based on the situation of the game. A few of the key important split stats to research when handicapping a starting pitcher are: Home/Road, vs. Left/Right handed batters, Night/Day, weather, days of rest, etc. You want to compare how the pitcher has fared in those categories recently (last few games) AND historically. Also, instead of researching a pitcher’s ERA, you may want to research a more recent and effective stat called xFIP. For more information on MLB Advanced Stats, just Google MLB Sabermetrics and you will find a wealth of information. When wagering on Totals, be sure to research if the pitcher allows a high number of fly balls as opposed to strikeouts and ground balls. A pitcher who has a high ratio of fly balls will be exposed to a higher chance of allowing homeruns. Take notice of a pitcher’s fly ball ratio and the wind direction to make a good case for betting the OVER.
Handicapping Bullpens
Just as important as handicapping starting pitchers, the team’s bullpen stats should NOT be ignored. Recently, we have seen so many stellar performances by the starting pitchers go down the drain to an awful bullpen that blow the game. We have also seen sure shot UNDERS go OVER the Total after the Bullpen self-destructs and gives up numerous runs. Depending on where we are in the season, starting pitcher’s can average anywhere from 5 to 7.5 innings. The bullpen will typically at least face 6 batters, which has proven to be very significant. To get a good gauge on how many innings a pitcher may pitch, be cognizant of the time of year (pitchers pitch less innings in the beginning of the season), his pitch count (managers only allow a certain amount of pitches before pulling their pitcher), and the opponents pitches per at bat and how each hitter has performed against the opposing pitcher. Although baseball stats can get very, and I mean very, granular, you want to have a good balance of not too basic and not too advanced. Handicapping baseball on a daily basis takes up a lot time. Before I finished my program, it would take me 3-5 hours every day to handicap a day’s worth of games! Everything is now automated and still takes up to 2 hours every day!
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Handicapping Batting
First, analyze who is the opposing starting pitcher, which hand he throws with, and what players are hitting. Next, you will want to research how each hitter performs against the opposing hand of the starting pitcher. Some hitters are better against righty’s and some are not as impressive against lefty’s. Hitter’s tend to be streaky so look for a team that has been hitting the ball recently. In baseball, more often than not, you definitely want to ride the streaks as opposed to fading them. The season is long and when teams are hot, they can stay hot. Another factor you want to consider is travel: Is the team traveling to a different time zone? How much rest did they get? What is the difference in weather (wind, temperature, humidity, pressure)? A stadium where the wind is blowing towards the outfield at 5mph or higher may be a good case for the game or team total going OVER the Total.
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Top 5 Profitable Teams OVERALL in 2014
1. Baltimore Orioles $3,477
2. Los Angeles Angels $2,119
3. Washington Nationals $1,019
4. Los Angeles Dodgers $948
5. San Francisco Giants $726
Top 5 Profitable HOME Teams in 2014
1. Baltimore Orioles $1,440
2. Pittsburgh Pirates $1,259
3. Los Angeles Angels $1,195
4. San Diego Padres $1,080
5. St. Louis Cardinals $948
Top 5 Profitable AWAY Teams in 2014
1. Baltimore Orioles $2,037
2. Seattle Mariners $1,505
3. Los Angeles Dodgers $1,487
4. Kansas City Royals $1,417
5. Los Angeles Angels $924
Top 5 Profitable UNDERDOGS in 2014
1. Baltimore Orioles $2,036
2. Seattle Mariners $1,210
3. Milwaukee Brewers $920
4. Philadelphia Phillies $788
5. Toronto Blue Jays $731
Least Profitable FAVORITES in 2014
1. Boston Red Sox -$2,964
2. Tampa Bay Rays -$2,299
3. Atlanta Braves -$1,694
4. Milwaukee Brewers -$1,658
5. Arizona Diamondbacks -$1,190
The Minnesota Twins held the highest amount of games going OVER at 85
The San Diego Padres held the highest amount of games staying UNDER at 94
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Handicapping General Tips
- When wagering on the ML (Money Line), look to bet the Underdog before betting the favorite, especially early in the season. You can win less than 50% of your bets and have a losing record and still make a profit betting on the ML dogs because you are only laying $100.
- When betting on a ML favorite, try not to lay more than $150. If you average laying $150 to win $100, you will need to win 60% of your wagers in order to make a profit.
- Building on my last tip, if you like a favorite higher than $150, look to bet the team on the RL (Run Line), giving up -1.5 runs at plus money. That being said, a lot of games end up being won by only 1 run, so also take a look at grabbing +1.5 runs as well.
- Look to bet the UNDER first, more MLB games go UNDER the Total.
- Last season player stats are important in the beginning of the season. In fact, I don’t utilize the current season player stats until about 6 weeks into the season.
- Don’t ignore weather (wind, temperature, humidity, pressure).
- Stadiums go hand-in-hand with weather, be very wary of betting UNDERS at Coors Field.
- When betting Totals, be aware that “7” is the most “key number” (“9” very close behind). If you like the OVER at 6.5, bet it quick. Conversely, if you like the UNDER at 6.5, wait to see if the Total moves up to 7 before firing.
- To add on to betting Totals tips, remember that games never end in a tie in baseball, so when team’s are tied 3-3 for a Total of 6, you know that the total score will at least be 7 or possibly higher.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the best advice I could give is to practice money management, wagering only 2-3% of your bankroll per game. It’s also best to NEVER EVER force a play. The season is long and just because you are at work and there is a day game you want to wager on to make the day less boring at work, Don’t Do It! A good book that I am not associated with, but I do suggest reading, is “Trading Bases” by Joe Peta. If you aren’t a fan of reading (like myself), you can get the audiobook version. It’s a must read/listen and you will get a ton of knowledge. Stay focused and adapt to new trends and evolve as the season progresses.
If you aren’t handicapping yourself and following my picks, the best thing I can tell you is to follow every pick and wager as recommended based on your bankroll. My record is documented and proven as a long-term winner, so stay aboard the ship even when the tide gets rough. Promising to win every day is simply a lie that I will not make as I pride myself on honesty, transparency, and hard work. Lastly, I wanted to inform everyone know that you can watch every pitch from every game the day prior Legally and FREE! Even better, you can choose to watch the condensed version which is about 30-45 minutes HERE: http://mlb.mlb.com/mediacenter/index.jsp?c_id=mlb
I’d like to wish everyone a profitable MLB season and as always, “Let’s Take it to the Bank!”
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