College Basketball Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs Xavier Musketeers
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 8:40 PM ET, Saturday March 20, 2016
Where: Scottrade Center in St Louis Missouri
Lines: Xavier -4
Total: 136
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The Wisconsin Badgers are making their 18th consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and they did make it to the finals last year, but this is a much different team that that squad. The Badgers knocked of Pitt in a low scoring 47-43 slugfest in their opening round game and they are now 9-5-2 ATS vs Tournament teams this year and they are also 7-1 ATS in the tournament with the line being -5 to +5, but they were also just 5-7 ATS vs non-conference teams this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The Badgers have 5 players that average at least 7.5 ppg and are led by Nigel Hayes, who scores 16.3 ppg. Bronson Koenig is 2nd at 13.1 ppg, while Ethan Happ is 3rd at 12.2 ppg and he leads the team in rebounding at 7.8 rpg. Wisconsin has not been a good offensive team this year as they come in ranked 279th in the nation in scoring, putting up just 68.2 ppg, while also ranking 248th in shooting overall, 144th in 3-point shooting and 146th at the charity stripe. On defense they have been solid as usual as they come in ranked 19th in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 63.9 ppg, but they are just 136th in defensive FG% overall and 325th in 3-point defense. The Badgers come in at 220th in the nation in rebounding, while they commit just 10.8 turnovers per game (30th) and force just 12.1 turnovers per game (212th).
The Xavier Musketeers had another solid season and spent much of the year ranked in the top 10 in the polls. Their made it past their first round matchup with Weber State rather easily in the 71-53 win. Xavier is now 21-3 ATS in their last NCAA Tournament games and they are 7-0 ATS their last seven in round two, but they are also just 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall and just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday. The X-Men have 7 players that average at least 6.2 ppg and they are led by Trevon Bluiett, who averages 15.3 ppg and hits 39.7% of his shots from long range. Edmond Sumner and James Farr both put in 11 ppg and Farr leads the team in rebounding at 8.0 rpg. Rounding out the double digit scorers is Myles Davis at 10.9 ppg. Xavier has been a very good offensive team this year as they come in ranked 18th in the nation in scoring, putting up 81.0 ppg, while also ranking 110th in shooting overall, 94th in 3-point shooting and 49th at the charity stripe. On defense they have been decent as they come in ranked 140th in the nation in points allowed, giving up 70.5 ppg, while also ranking 70th in defensive FG% overall and 28th in 3-point defense. The Badgers come in at 11th in the nation in rebounding, while they commit just 12.7 turnovers per game (181st) and force 14.0 turnovers per game (62nd).
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[723] Wisconsin +4.5 over Xavier
I like the Badgers in this game, despite some solid ATS numbers by the Musketeers in this tournament. The Badgers play solid defense and they also make you play at their pace, which should frustrate Xavier. They have played decent defense, but nothing like Wisconsin has. The Badgers were one of the hotter teams in the nation down the stretch this year and I feel it will continue here and it will be again that defense that leads them. Wisconsin is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, so they do play up to their competition. I look for the outright win by Wisconsin here.
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