Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State Warriors Wednesday NBA Betting Preview & Free Pick

NBA Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State Warriors

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 10:30 PM ET, Wednesday March 23, 2016

Where: Oracle Arena in Oakland, California

Lines: Golden State -9.5

Total: 225

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The Clippers have had a solid year so far as they are 43-26 overall, including 21-14 on the road, but they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and are off a bad 109-105  loss at New Orleans. Still this team will be ready once the playoffs begin as they should have Blake Griffin back at that point. They have gone 25-13 without him, but still they are better with him. The team in scoring is Chris Paul, who averages 20.0 ppg and 9.9 apg, which is 4th in the league. JJ Reddick has had a solid season as he has averaged 16.8 ppg hits 48.5% from long range, while and DeAndre Jordan is 2nd in the league in rebounding at 13.9 rpg and chips in with 12.7 ppg. Jamal Crawford (13.6 ppg) and Jeff Green (10.1 ppg) round out the double digit scorers on the team. Overall the Clippers come into this game ranked 6th in the league in scoring, putting up 104.6 ppg,  while also ranking 7th in shooting overall and 6th from long range, but they are weak from the charity stripe where they are 28th. The defensive numbers are solid as they come in ranked 10th in points allowed, giving up just 101.1 ppg, while also ranking 7th defensive FG% and 10th in 3-point defense. On the road this year the Clippers have averaged 104.6 ppg on 46.3% shooting, while allowing 102.8 ppg on 44.9% shooting.

The Golden State Warriors are having another incredible year as they come in at 63-7 overall, including a perfect 32-0 at home. The Warriors are chasing history as they look to best the 1995-96 Bulls team that won 72 games. Golden State has 12 games left and must go 10-2 in those game to do it. It does help that 9 of their last 12 games are at home. The Warriors have 6 players that average at least 7.1 ppg and are led by the best player in the league right now in Steph Curry (Sorry Lebron)., Curry comes in leading the league in scoring at 30.1 ppg, while hitting 45.4% from downtown. Klay Thompson has had another solid season as he averages 22 ppg and hits 42.4% from long range. Draymond Green leads the team in rebounding at 9.6 ppg and is 3rd on the team in scoring at 13.7 ppg, while rounding out the double digit scorers is Harrison Barnes at 11.3 ppg. This is the best offensive team in the league as they come in ranked tops in the league in scoring, putting up 115.3 ppg,  while also ranking 1st in shooting overall and 1st from long range, but they are not great from the charity stripe where they are 18th. The defensive numbers are solid as they come in ranked 21st in points allowed, giving up just 104.2 ppg, while also ranking 3rd defensive FG% and 3rd in 3-point defense. At home the Warriors average 115.9 ppg on 49.1% shooting, while allowing 100.3 ppg on 44.3% shooting.

 

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[723] LA Clippers +9.5 over Golden State

I feel like the Clippers will be able to keep this one close. They are not playing well right now, but the Dog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 in the series and the pressure looks like it could be mounting on the Warriors as they were able to beat Minnesota by just 4 points in their last game in the game before that they were able to score just 79 points vs the Spurs. All three meetings this year have been decided by 7 points or less and I expect this one to as well. The Clippers will put their best effort forward and while they will not win outright I do expect them to keep it close.  

 

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(Season Opener) Pelicans at Warriors Hypothesis - Total and Side Pick - 10/27/15

Written by: The Scientist follow me on Twitter: @thescientistsbc Google+ +The Scientist 

Dec 4, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) defends a three by New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the first quarter at Oracle Arena.  Davis has added the three-point shot to his arsenal of scoring weapons.

Introduction

To kcik off the NBA season, the Golden State Warriors welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to ORACLE Arena. The game starts at 10:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 27 and will air on TNT and FSN.  The Warriors will be receiving their championship rings and raising the banner before the game which could be a distraction, but maybe not.

METHODS – To the game

Warriors

The Warriors redefined NBA Champion-style basketball and what will be required of teams to reach the final.  They were simply other-worldly with their run-and-gun-and-pop play, and most NBA enthusiasts tuned into Sport Center nightly, to see what new magic trick MVP Stephen Curry pulled out of his hat.  

It’s hard to imagine Golden State without Curry, but if he was abducted by aliens tomorrow, Klay Thompson is capable of elevating his game to MVP-leve play, and just might drop 37pts in a quarter.  

Also, it's hard to imagine this team without Draymond Green, stuffed the stat sheet on a nightly basis, and came up with the cool catch phrase, “Nice Story, Glenn.”  Draymond is the beginning of the Warriors multiple playoff runs (when he was drafted 4yrs ago, 35th) and the end, as he brings an (un)measurable amount of heart and personality.And Andre “Washed Up” Iguodala, at age 31 won the Finals MVP and proved, via Eminem, that we should not have “Forgot about Dre”. Of course, the Warriors won their first NBA championship since 1972.  And sure, there was a little bit of luck involved as they faced only Lebron James (The Cavs entire starting lineup except James was injured, including All-Stars Irving and Love), but there's no denying… they were the best team in the NBA last sesason. Now, if Cleveland can stay healthy and have more than a single player on the court, we may have a dethroning… but that’s a BIG “IF”. 

Pelicans

On the other side of this equation, we have the Pelicants, who will be eager to bounce back and improve on their 45-37 record last season.  All things considered (although it didn’t end the way they might have hoped), their season was a truly great as they were without their starting PG Jrue Holiday (40gms, 19PER), or SG Eric Gordon (60gms, 13PER), PF Ryan Anderson (60gms, 16PER), F/C Anthony Davis (68gms, 31PER).  Everyone appears to be back and 100%, including Holiday’s whose minutes restrictions are being lifted.  However, the Pelicants suffered a HUGE blow with the news coming last week that their second most valuable player Tyreke “Havoc” Evans (19PER, 78gms) has been ruled out for 6-8 weeks as he recovers from knee surgery.  “Reke Havoc” is still only 26 so this borderline All-Star should be able to make a comeback mid-season and still make an impact.  In the meantime, Eric Gordon, Nate Robinson, and possibly Norris Cole will be asked to step and be a role player to, let’s face it… this season’s going to be about “All eyes on AnthoNY” (2Pac reference there, in case you missed it).  Davis has added a three-point shot to his game in the offseason, truly proving he’s THE MAN this season… and will probably run away with the MVP this season, provided the PeliCANs make it back to the playoffs. 

RESULTS (PAST)

The total in this one has jumped from 208 to 214.5 since it opened, which is a bit high imo for the first game of the season.  Also, for two teams that played each other close in all 4 games of the 1^st round of the playoffs last year.  Only one of the 4 games in this series went over this total (Gm3 tied 108-108 after regulation).  The average total for this series (minus the points in OT) was 203.

Their four regular season games, GS took 3 of 4 but the total was 207.5ppg (minus the overtime points scored on Dec14, 111-111 after regulation).  Both regular season and playoff games, the OT wasn’t needed to top this total but it were the 2 of 8 to go over

In the last two seasons the record in October, of the NBA Championship (Spurs and Heat) was a combined 2-2, 101.8ppg… a minor slow start maybe due to all the hoopla surrounding the championships. 

I expect more of the same in this game, especially since there a lot of focus being placed on who’s NOT on the court, head Coach Steve Kerr, who’s suffering from back surgery (2 of them this summer) complications.  Interim head coach Luke Walton will continue to fill in for the foreseeable future as there is no timetable set on Kerr’s return.

Kerr has not been completely absent as he attended this past Saturday’s practice and is consulting everyone involved, owner Lacob, coach Walton, and player.  Assume the same style of play to resume Tuesday night as they left off last season, scoring from all over the floor, moving the ball quickly in transition, and playing scrappy defense, that actually rated (people forget) #1 in the league last season.

ATS

Pelicants are 4-1 ATS in L5 vs Western Conference and 2-5 in L7 road games.  Warriors are 4-1 in L5 Tuesday gms & 7-2 in L9 when playing on 3 or more days of res.

CONCLUSIONS

Would you bet against the Warriors at Oracle on celebration night? 

I wouldn't either....

The Pelicans are going to be a force this season, but it's impossible to bet against the Warriors in this spot. 

I hypothesize the Warriors will cover 9.5.

First regular season game under Walton though, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Anthony Davis go for 40 and keep this one close (within 10), but it also wouldn’t surprise if the Warriors put up 120 on opening night and hold a slightly less dangerous (than last year) Pelican’s team in the 90s.

Either way I hypothesize that this game will go UNDER the current total of 214.5.  If the line moves again (it’ll probably be in the other direction) so I’d play it down to as low as 212.5.

Final Score Hypothesis: 110-95


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