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Dec 4, 2014;
Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) defends a three by New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the first
quarter at Oracle Arena. Davis has added the three-point shot to his arsenal of scoring weapons.
Introduction
To kcik off the NBA season, the Golden State
Warriors welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to ORACLE Arena. The game starts at 10:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 27 and will air on TNT
and FSN. The Warriors will be receiving their championship
rings and raising the banner before the game which could be a distraction, but maybe not.
METHODS – To the gameWarriors
The Warriors redefined
NBA Champion-style basketball and what will be required of teams to reach the
final. They were simply other-worldly
with their run-and-gun-and-pop play, and most NBA enthusiasts tuned into Sport Center
nightly, to see what new magic trick MVP Stephen Curry pulled out of his
hat.
It’s hard to imagine Golden State
without Curry, but if he was abducted by aliens tomorrow, Klay Thompson is
capable of elevating his game to MVP-leve play, and just might drop 37pts in a
quarter.
  
Also, it's hard to imagine this team without Draymond Green, stuffed the stat
sheet on a nightly basis, and came up with the cool catch phrase, “Nice Story,
Glenn.” Draymond is the beginning of the Warriors multiple playoff runs (when he was drafted 4yrs ago, 35th) and the end, as he brings an (un)measurable amount of heart and personality.And Andre “Washed Up” Iguodala, at
age 31 won the Finals MVP and proved, via Eminem, that we should not have “Forgot
about Dre”. Of course, the Warriors won their first NBA championship since
1972. And sure, there was a little bit
of luck involved as they faced only Lebron James (The Cavs entire starting
lineup except James was injured, including All-Stars Irving and Love), but
there's no denying… they were the best team in the NBA last sesason. Now, if
Cleveland can stay healthy and have more than a single player on the court, we
may have a dethroning… but that’s a BIG “IF”.
Pelicans
On the other side of
this equation, we have the Pelicants, who will be eager to bounce back and
improve on their 45-37 record last season.
All things considered (although it didn’t end the way they might have
hoped), their season was a truly great as they were without their starting PG
Jrue Holiday (40gms, 19PER), or SG Eric Gordon (60gms, 13PER), PF Ryan Anderson
(60gms, 16PER), F/C Anthony Davis (68gms, 31PER). Everyone appears to be back and 100%,
including Holiday’s whose minutes restrictions are being lifted. However, the Pelicants suffered a HUGE blow with
the news coming last week that their second most valuable player Tyreke “Havoc”
Evans (19PER, 78gms) has been ruled out for 6-8 weeks as he recovers from knee
surgery. “Reke Havoc” is still only 26
so this borderline All-Star should be able to make a comeback mid-season and still
make an impact. In the meantime, Eric
Gordon, Nate Robinson, and possibly Norris Cole will be asked to step and be a
role player to, let’s face it… this season’s going to be about “All eyes on
AnthoNY” (2Pac reference there, in case you missed it). Davis has added a three-point shot to his
game in the offseason, truly proving he’s THE MAN this season… and will
probably run away with the MVP this season, provided the PeliCANs make it back
to the playoffs.
RESULTS (PAST)
The total in this one has jumped from 208 to 214.5 since it
opened, which is a bit high imo for the first game of the season. Also, for two teams that played each other
close in all 4 games of the 1st round of the playoffs last
year. Only one of the 4 games in this
series went over this total (Gm3 tied 108-108 after regulation). The average total for this series (minus the
points in OT) was 203.
Their four regular season games, GS took 3 of 4 but the
total was 207.5ppg (minus the overtime points scored on Dec14, 111-111 after
regulation). Both regular season and
playoff games, the OT wasn’t needed to top this total but it were the 2 of 8 to
go over
In the last two seasons the record in October, of the NBA
Championship (Spurs and Heat) was a combined 2-2, 101.8ppg… a minor slow start
maybe due to all the hoopla surrounding the championships.
I expect more of the same in this game, especially since
there a lot of focus being placed on who’s NOT on the court, head Coach Steve
Kerr, who’s suffering from back surgery (2 of them this summer)
complications. Interim head coach Luke
Walton will continue to fill in for the foreseeable future as there is no
timetable set on Kerr’s return.
Kerr has not been completely absent as he attended this past
Saturday’s practice and is consulting everyone involved, owner Lacob, coach
Walton, and player. Assume the same
style of play to resume Tuesday night as they left off last season, scoring
from all over the floor, moving the ball quickly in transition, and playing
scrappy defense, that actually rated (people forget) #1 in the league last
season.
ATS
Pelicants are 4-1 ATS in L5 vs Western Conference and 2-5 in L7 road games. Warriors are 4-1 in L5 Tuesday gms & 7-2 in L9 when playing on 3 or more days of res.
CONCLUSIONS
Would you bet against
the Warriors at Oracle on celebration night?
I wouldn't either....
The Pelicans are going
to be a force this season, but it's impossible to bet against the Warriors in
this spot.
I hypothesize the Warriors will cover 9.5.
First
regular season game under Walton though, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised
to see Anthony Davis go for 40 and keep this one close (within 10), but it also
wouldn’t surprise if the Warriors put up 120 on opening night and hold a slightly
less dangerous (than last year) Pelican’s team in the 90s.
Either
way I hypothesize that this game will go UNDER the current total of 214.5. If the line moves again (it’ll probably be in
the other direction) so I’d play it down to as low as 212.5.
Final Score Hypothesis: 110-95
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Monday, October 26, 2015
(Season Opener) Pelicans at Warriors Hypothesis - Total and Side Pick - 10/27/15
Written by: The Scientist follow me on Twitter: @thescientistsbc Google+ +The Scientist
