#65 Northwestern at #11 Purdue trend w/ pick

Surprising trend for #65 Northwestern at #11 Purdue w/ free pick
By: TheScientist (Follow Me on Twitter @thescientistsbc)

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Abstract

The #65* Northwestern Wildcats (17-9; 5-8) travel to Lafayette to play future 1st round NBA, possibly lottery star, Sr. Center A.J. Hammons, and the #11* Purdue Boilermakers (20-6; 8-5).  I think it'll be interesting to see how the Wildcats' own 7-footer, Alex Olah matches up as he's had an inconsistent year, mostly attributed to injuries.

Analysis & Data

When comparing these two teams let's only look at their most recent 13 B1G games as they are the best indicator of future B1G play.  The Wildcats are averaging about 67ppg while allowing 72ppg, on the road.  The Boilermakers are averaging about 78ppg while allowing 69ppg at home.

However, let’s take a closer look based upon quality of opponents and you can see that Purdue blows so-so (scientifically speaking) teams out, while Northwestern gets clobbered by great teams on the road.  This trend is so glaring I feel as if the outcome is a certainty, that is, unless someone’s shaving points, in which case, no one wins except the ones who know about the point shaving.

Anyways, when the wildcats play on the road against a team ranked 14^th or better (n=4), the average final score is 60-78.

1/31 #13 Iowa L 71-85

1/28 #1 Michigan St. L 45-76

1/23 #14 Indiana L 57-89

1/02 #17 Maryland L 56-62

11/25 #5 North Carolina L 69-80

When the Boilermakers play at home against a team ranked 30^th-132^nd (n=5), the average score is 79-64.  I selected 132 because Penn State beat Northwestern in Evanston… and that’s not exactly a good look for a team sporting a 17-9 record with unrealistic ideas of March Madness (sorry NW fans).

1/30 #76 Nebraska W 89-74

1/21 #62 Ohio State W 75-64

1/13 #132 Penn St. W 74-57

1/07 #30 Michigan W 87-70

12/22 #19 Vanderbilt W 68-55

So by these numbers, the final score should be approximately 79-62, which covers the 11.5 and the total of 134, both easily.
 

ATS

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their L4 gms vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Purdue.

 

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Conclusion

Purdue -11.5 (up to -13) and over 134.5

 *Ranking Explanation/FYI: I always use a predictive ranking model courtesy of teamrankings.com which is based upon an algorithm which includes RPI, SOS, margin of victory, and preseason expectations.  Personally, I believe the AP ranking is antiquated, subjective, and very biased system, and therefore the antithesis of science.

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#6 Kansas Jayhawks vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview & Prediction

#6 Kansas Jayhawks vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners

Betting Preview & Prediction

By: TheScientist (Follow Me on Twitter @thescientistsbc)

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Kansas Jayhawks (20-4, 14-8 ATS)

Oklahoma Sooners (20-3, 10-11 ATS)

Odds: Oklahoma -5

Game Time: Saturday, February 13th, 2:30pm EST

The Sooners seek revenge after losing an epic triple OT game at Kansas during their 1st meeting this season on January 4th. With OU’s home court advantage (12-0 SU), I believe The Sooners will be extra focused to knock Kansas off its’ incredible 11yr Big12 Championship pedestal, and send the message: 2016 is our year.   

All tied at the top of the Big 12 standings with an (8-3) conference record are the Jayhawks, Sooners, and Mountaineers.  While Kansas handled the WV a few nights ago, 75-65, they got a little lucky because they left A TON of Mountaineers shooters open beyond the arc.  However, WV only hit a dismal 25% (5-20) beyond the arc and their inability to hit open shots pretty much lost them the game.  AND, the game was closer until Kansas hit free throws down the stretch to extend the lead to ten at the buzzer.  On Saturday, in Norman, automatically tack on an additional 25% (or more) made from beyond the arc, mostly coming from Buddy Hield and Jordan Woodard, who scored 46 and 27, respectively, in the first game.

Another difference between these two teams in the last five games has been taking care of the ball.  In each team’s L5 games, Oklahoma has a +3, while Kansas has a -2, turnover ratio.  The most glaring example was them making terrible passes in short stretches, the biggest was on five straight possessions early in the 2nd half.  Of course, they did execute as well on just about every trip down the floor in the final 6 minutes which put the game out of reach.  And it didn’t help that WV was missing one of their best defenders, F Jonathan Holton (10ppg/7rpg), who played in their first matchup and contributed to forcing the Jayhawks commit and astounding 22 turnovers in Morgantown.

Perry Ellis has been sensational thus far through 3 games in February (21ppg/5rpg/2apg/1bpg), and scored a game-high 21pts & 3 assists (but only one rebound) to help his squad notch the W at home.  He also scored 27pts & 13reb in their 1st meeting with the Sooners on January 4th.  The Jayhawks will need all offensive weapons, including Seldon (14/3/3), Mason (13/5/5), and Graham (11/3/4), ready for Saturday's matchup.

Oklahoma, like Kansas, is a favorite to make a deep run in this year's NCAA Tournament.  They’ll need a statement home win on Saturday to make a stronger case for a possible #1 seed, as well as ended the Jayhawks historic Big12 run.  Last Saturday, The Sooners were upset in Manhattan against the well coached Kansas State Wildcats, who could make a strong push to make the tournament with an at large bid if they finish the season strong with a 5-2 record or better.  The Sooners struggled in this game as KSU played their best game of the season defensively by not allowing any easy shots, and minimizing Buddy Hield’s touches inside 25 feet.  

The Sooners then bounced back against Texas on Tuesday, despite Hield and Woodard having another disappointing night shooting the rock (4-13 beyond arc).  However, Isiah Cousins stepped up and had a great game scoring 17pts, 6reb, and 3ast, while also sinking 3-5 from deep.  And, it was encouraging to see Oklahoma take care of the ball once again, only committing 10 turnovers.  I’m also looking for (the always physical) 6’8” Sr. F Ryan Spangler (11/10/2) to step up in this game and contain Perry Ellis.

The Oklahoma Sooners have won 19 straight home games overall dating back to last year.  The Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in their L8 Saturday games and 4-0 ATS in their L4 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-6 ATS in their L8 home games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Sooners almost beat Kansas on the road this season.  

Despite everyone discussing how there are no clear cut favorites this season, I really think the Sooners are still the best team in the country right now with their superior backcourt, and physical frontcourt.  I don’t think the Jayhawks are deep enough to go on the road and steal another one here.  They’re going to continue to commit unforced turnovers (remember 22 at WV) and the Sooners will capitalize on their mistakes.  I like the Sooners in this contest and free throws (team 73%), at the end, will push it past the spread.

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16-8 in NCAAB L11days on premium hypotheses
27-8 overall on HOTT selections

Final Hypothesis: Oklahoma 83, Kansas 74

Free Pick: Oklahoma -4.5

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