By: TheScientist (Follow Me on Twitter @thescientistsbc)
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Abstract
The #65* Northwestern
Wildcats (17-9; 5-8) travel to Lafayette to play future 1st round NBA,
possibly lottery star, Sr. Center A.J. Hammons, and the #11* Purdue
Boilermakers (20-6; 8-5). I think it'll be interesting to see how the
Wildcats' own 7-footer, Alex Olah matches up as he's had an inconsistent year,
mostly attributed to injuries.
Analysis & Data
When comparing these two teams let's only look at their most recent 13 B1G games as they are the best indicator of future B1G play. The Wildcats are averaging about 67ppg while allowing 72ppg, on the road. The Boilermakers are averaging about 78ppg while allowing 69ppg at home.
However, let’s take a closer look based upon
quality of opponents and you can see that Purdue blows so-so (scientifically
speaking) teams out, while Northwestern gets clobbered by great teams on the road. This trend is so glaring I feel as if the
outcome is a certainty, that is, unless someone’s shaving points, in which
case, no one wins except the ones who know about the point shaving.
Anyways, when the wildcats play on the road
against a team ranked 14th or better (n=4), the average final score
is 60-78.
1/31 #13 Iowa L 71-85
1/28 #1 Michigan St. L 45-76
1/23 #14 Indiana L 57-89
1/02 #17 Maryland L 56-62
11/25 #5 North Carolina L 69-80
When the Boilermakers play at home against a
team ranked 30th-132nd (n=5), the average score is 79-64. I selected 132 because Penn State beat Northwestern
in Evanston… and that’s not exactly a good look for a team sporting a 17-9
record with unrealistic ideas of March Madness (sorry NW fans).
1/30 #76 Nebraska W 89-74
1/21 #62 Ohio State W 75-64
1/13 #132 Penn St. W 74-57
1/07 #30 Michigan W 87-70
12/22 #19 Vanderbilt W 68-55
So by these numbers, the final score should
be approximately 79-62, which covers the 11.5 and the total of 134, both easily.
ATS
The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their L4 gms vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Purdue.
16-8 in NCAAB L11days on premium hypotheses
27-8 overall on HOTT selections
27-8 overall on HOTT selections
Conclusion
Purdue -11.5 (up to -13) and over 134.5
*Ranking Explanation/FYI: I always use a predictive ranking model courtesy of teamrankings.com which is based upon an algorithm which includes RPI, SOS, margin of victory, and preseason expectations. Personally, I believe the AP ranking is antiquated, subjective, and very biased system, and therefore the antithesis of science.
*Ranking Explanation/FYI: I always use a predictive ranking model courtesy of teamrankings.com which is based upon an algorithm which includes RPI, SOS, margin of victory, and preseason expectations. Personally, I believe the AP ranking is antiquated, subjective, and very biased system, and therefore the antithesis of science.
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