#65 Northwestern at #11 Purdue trend w/ pick

Surprising trend for #65 Northwestern at #11 Purdue w/ free pick
By: TheScientist (Follow Me on Twitter @thescientistsbc)

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Abstract

The #65* Northwestern Wildcats (17-9; 5-8) travel to Lafayette to play future 1st round NBA, possibly lottery star, Sr. Center A.J. Hammons, and the #11* Purdue Boilermakers (20-6; 8-5).  I think it'll be interesting to see how the Wildcats' own 7-footer, Alex Olah matches up as he's had an inconsistent year, mostly attributed to injuries.

Analysis & Data

When comparing these two teams let's only look at their most recent 13 B1G games as they are the best indicator of future B1G play.  The Wildcats are averaging about 67ppg while allowing 72ppg, on the road.  The Boilermakers are averaging about 78ppg while allowing 69ppg at home.

However, let’s take a closer look based upon quality of opponents and you can see that Purdue blows so-so (scientifically speaking) teams out, while Northwestern gets clobbered by great teams on the road.  This trend is so glaring I feel as if the outcome is a certainty, that is, unless someone’s shaving points, in which case, no one wins except the ones who know about the point shaving.

Anyways, when the wildcats play on the road against a team ranked 14^th or better (n=4), the average final score is 60-78.

1/31 #13 Iowa L 71-85

1/28 #1 Michigan St. L 45-76

1/23 #14 Indiana L 57-89

1/02 #17 Maryland L 56-62

11/25 #5 North Carolina L 69-80

When the Boilermakers play at home against a team ranked 30^th-132^nd (n=5), the average score is 79-64.  I selected 132 because Penn State beat Northwestern in Evanston… and that’s not exactly a good look for a team sporting a 17-9 record with unrealistic ideas of March Madness (sorry NW fans).

1/30 #76 Nebraska W 89-74

1/21 #62 Ohio State W 75-64

1/13 #132 Penn St. W 74-57

1/07 #30 Michigan W 87-70

12/22 #19 Vanderbilt W 68-55

So by these numbers, the final score should be approximately 79-62, which covers the 11.5 and the total of 134, both easily.
 

ATS

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their L4 gms vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Purdue.

 

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Conclusion

Purdue -11.5 (up to -13) and over 134.5

 *Ranking Explanation/FYI: I always use a predictive ranking model courtesy of teamrankings.com which is based upon an algorithm which includes RPI, SOS, margin of victory, and preseason expectations.  Personally, I believe the AP ranking is antiquated, subjective, and very biased system, and therefore the antithesis of science.

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#6 Kansas Jayhawks vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview & Prediction

#6 Kansas Jayhawks vs #3 Oklahoma Sooners

Betting Preview & Prediction

By: TheScientist (Follow Me on Twitter @thescientistsbc)

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Kansas Jayhawks (20-4, 14-8 ATS)

Oklahoma Sooners (20-3, 10-11 ATS)

Odds: Oklahoma -5

Game Time: Saturday, February 13th, 2:30pm EST

The Sooners seek revenge after losing an epic triple OT game at Kansas during their 1st meeting this season on January 4th. With OU’s home court advantage (12-0 SU), I believe The Sooners will be extra focused to knock Kansas off its’ incredible 11yr Big12 Championship pedestal, and send the message: 2016 is our year.   

All tied at the top of the Big 12 standings with an (8-3) conference record are the Jayhawks, Sooners, and Mountaineers.  While Kansas handled the WV a few nights ago, 75-65, they got a little lucky because they left A TON of Mountaineers shooters open beyond the arc.  However, WV only hit a dismal 25% (5-20) beyond the arc and their inability to hit open shots pretty much lost them the game.  AND, the game was closer until Kansas hit free throws down the stretch to extend the lead to ten at the buzzer.  On Saturday, in Norman, automatically tack on an additional 25% (or more) made from beyond the arc, mostly coming from Buddy Hield and Jordan Woodard, who scored 46 and 27, respectively, in the first game.

Another difference between these two teams in the last five games has been taking care of the ball.  In each team’s L5 games, Oklahoma has a +3, while Kansas has a -2, turnover ratio.  The most glaring example was them making terrible passes in short stretches, the biggest was on five straight possessions early in the 2nd half.  Of course, they did execute as well on just about every trip down the floor in the final 6 minutes which put the game out of reach.  And it didn’t help that WV was missing one of their best defenders, F Jonathan Holton (10ppg/7rpg), who played in their first matchup and contributed to forcing the Jayhawks commit and astounding 22 turnovers in Morgantown.

Perry Ellis has been sensational thus far through 3 games in February (21ppg/5rpg/2apg/1bpg), and scored a game-high 21pts & 3 assists (but only one rebound) to help his squad notch the W at home.  He also scored 27pts & 13reb in their 1st meeting with the Sooners on January 4th.  The Jayhawks will need all offensive weapons, including Seldon (14/3/3), Mason (13/5/5), and Graham (11/3/4), ready for Saturday's matchup.

Oklahoma, like Kansas, is a favorite to make a deep run in this year's NCAA Tournament.  They’ll need a statement home win on Saturday to make a stronger case for a possible #1 seed, as well as ended the Jayhawks historic Big12 run.  Last Saturday, The Sooners were upset in Manhattan against the well coached Kansas State Wildcats, who could make a strong push to make the tournament with an at large bid if they finish the season strong with a 5-2 record or better.  The Sooners struggled in this game as KSU played their best game of the season defensively by not allowing any easy shots, and minimizing Buddy Hield’s touches inside 25 feet.  

The Sooners then bounced back against Texas on Tuesday, despite Hield and Woodard having another disappointing night shooting the rock (4-13 beyond arc).  However, Isiah Cousins stepped up and had a great game scoring 17pts, 6reb, and 3ast, while also sinking 3-5 from deep.  And, it was encouraging to see Oklahoma take care of the ball once again, only committing 10 turnovers.  I’m also looking for (the always physical) 6’8” Sr. F Ryan Spangler (11/10/2) to step up in this game and contain Perry Ellis.

The Oklahoma Sooners have won 19 straight home games overall dating back to last year.  The Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in their L8 Saturday games and 4-0 ATS in their L4 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-6 ATS in their L8 home games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Sooners almost beat Kansas on the road this season.  

Despite everyone discussing how there are no clear cut favorites this season, I really think the Sooners are still the best team in the country right now with their superior backcourt, and physical frontcourt.  I don’t think the Jayhawks are deep enough to go on the road and steal another one here.  They’re going to continue to commit unforced turnovers (remember 22 at WV) and the Sooners will capitalize on their mistakes.  I like the Sooners in this contest and free throws (team 73%), at the end, will push it past the spread.

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Final Hypothesis: Oklahoma 83, Kansas 74

Free Pick: Oklahoma -4.5

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49ers vs. Seahawks Hypothesis

Analysis and Hypothesis Formulated by The Scientist @TheScientistSBC

When pouring over all of the stats put up by two of the NFL's brightest young arms, one thing is for certain... San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick leads Seattle QB Russell Wilson in number of tattoos. 

Abstract - Game Details

• Game Type: NFL Football
• Teams: Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
• Date/Time: Thursday, October 22, 2015 at 8:25 pm 
• Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA
• Line: San Francisco 49ers +5.5 -- Over/Under: 42 Click HERE for latest odds
• TV Network: CBS, NFL

Introduction

• The Rivalry -- The Seahawks currently lead the all-time series record 18–15, including 10 in the playoffs.  In 2002, the Sea Pigeons and Gold Diggers moved in together into a crowded 4 team NFC West division. Thus playing each other twice (and in 2013 thrice), per year as divisional foes. As far as rivalries are concerned, it's still a teenager of 13yrs., but quite precocious since there is so much hatred between the two division foes (Pigeons lead since '02 16-11), or maybe not (according to Richard Sherman who said the rivalry is "not bit at all".)
• Wilson-Kaepernick Era. (Seachickens lead 5-2, including 2-0 last year with a 36-10 combined score)

Data - Seattle Seahawks

The Weehawks are looking to turn things around with a 2-4 record.  Still sniffing out that first road victory of the year and attempting to snap back-to-back (very narrow) losses. They're still a run first team and appear to be capable even if Marshawn Lynch can't go again with the bad hamstring injury (although all signs point to yes as he's listed as probable today).  Offensive line has been awful thus far in protecting Wilson, allowing league worst 26 sacks.

• QB Russell Wilson - 68.9% comp. for 1,433yds, 7TDs/3INTs 
• Wideouts - 238ypg (ranked 23rd), 4 40+yd catches (11), 65 1st downs (20)
• Jimmy Graham - 29rec./344yds/2TDs
• Doug Baldwin - 26/291/2
• Jermaine Kearse and 3rd rd pick (from Kansas St) Tyler Lockett both have shown some flashes but neither has really stepped forward as the true #2 WR.
• Running game - 137.8ypg (ranked 2nd), 2 TDs, 1FUM, 1 40+yd run
• Thomas Rawls leading the way with 334 yards & 1TD until Lynch is back and 100% healthy.
• Defense - 20.8ppg & 319.5ypg. 
• LB K.J. Wright - 45 tkl, 1FF 
• OLB Bruce Irvin - 13tkl & 3.5 sacks
• Earl Thomas - 25tkl, 5PD, 2INT, 1FF
• Bobby Wagner (status probable, pectoral) - 41tkls, 0.5sacks, 2PD
• Injuries (OUT) - nickel CB Marcus Burley, backup DT Jordan Hill, and backup C Patrick Lewis

Data - San Francisco 49ers 

The Winers are looking to string together back-to-back victories for the first time this season.  And they appear to have turned the corner, with solid play in their last two (narrowly losing to the Giants 2wks ago). Averaging a league low 16.7ppg and 321.1ypg (30th). Defense has not recorded a sack in the last two games but they've been able to hurry the QB 39 times this season (4^th in the league).

• QB Colin Kaepernick - 62.9% comp. & 1,329yds, 6TDs/5INTs
• 4TDs/0INTs in last 2gms w/ 115 QB Rating 
• Thru the Air - 221.5ypg (29th), 6TD (27th), 7 40+yds (2)
• Anquan Boldin - 28/333/2 (63% of production in last 2)
• Torrey Smith - 14/323/2 (75 & 76yd TDs).  Notes indicate Torrey Smith is only 26yo… uncertain why it seems like he’s been around forever.
• TE Garrett Celek - 14/131/1. Solid thus far in his 1st season w/ starting duties
• FB Bruce Miller - 5/112/0 in last 2gms 
• On the Ground - 118.3ypg (12th), 4TDs (15th), 4.2ypc (11th), 1st down% 22.9 (16th)
• RB Carlos Hyde (que) - 430yds &3TDs, 4.8ypc, 1FUML 
• Defense -  26.7ppg (25th) & 409ypg (31st), 3rd down conv 42% (25th)
• ILB NaVorro Bowman- 59 tkls 1sack (31tlks in last 2gms) 
• OLB Aaron Lynch - 17tkls, 3 sacks, 2PD 
• CB Tramaine Brock - 27tkls, 2sacks, 5PD 2INTs 
• Injuries (QUE) - RT Erik Pears (Back) Boldin (hammy) and Hyde (foot) 

Anquan Boldin shows why he rocks, at age 35 as he's looking
forward to attempt his 3rd straight 100yrd game against a Sea
defense allowing only 235ypg thru the air.

These defenses of Seattle and SF are clearly different from year’s past as they were ranked towards the top of NFL. Here are previous year’s defensive efficiencies, or DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value Over Average) based provided by Football Outsiders

2012: -14.5% (2^nd) and -14.4% (3^rd), respectively

2013: -25.9% (1^st) and -4.6 (13^th)

2014: -16.8% (1^st) and -10.1% (5^th)

2015: -1.1% (12^th) and 19.1% (32^nd)*

*SF has the 2^nd highest variance (due to their recent better play) and also the 3^rd strongest schedule of opposing offenses (7.8%, which is equivalent to playing the Atlanta offense every week).

As far as offenses are concerned, Seaslugs have been consistently average while the 49ers again, started slow and have picked things up, thus the highest variance.  Here are the offenses DAVE rating (combination of DVOA and preseason projection, currently 27% of number thru week 6).

2012: 18.5% (4^th) and 16.5% (5^th)

2013: 9.4% (7^th) and 9.1% (8^th)

2014: 16.8% (5^th) and -0.4% (16^th)

2015: 1.3% (14^th) and -13.0% (29^th)*

*keep in mind the greatest variance at 15.7% and strength of combined defenses played is -4.4% (equivalent to playing Patriot’s D every week).

Results – Conclusion

DESPITE only one game out of seven in the Wilson/Kaepernick era (2012-present) has a game gone over 42, with an average of 32.6 combined points, I put more weight into how these two team are playing recently as opposed to historically, although it’s not a bad idea to keep that as a frame of reference.

With that being said, neither of these two teams have stopped anyone through the air, so I expect big numbers from Wilson and Kap, and their core of wideouts.

The numbers have been studied and they do not support a continuation in the under trend, and so this game should easily go over the 42 total as both teams reach the 20pt threshold.

On a short week and the fact Seattle hasn't won a road game yet, and a lot of problems on both sides of the ball yet to be fixed, it might be a long night for Wilson and company in Santa Clara.

The Scientist's Hypothesis - over 42

Acknowledgments

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Football Outsiders - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/

In addition to the The Scientist's hypothesis here in this article, he also has a GOW Theory on this game.  It is the stronger play, which is being saved for the "NFL weekly package", and it also includes an entire week's worth of picks.  Email The Scientist thescientistsbc@gmail.com to receive a "Welcome to the S.H.I.T. Laboratory" 50% off coupon.

  The Scientist conducts all of his game analysis with all of his best hypotheses from The S.H.I.T. (Sports Handicapping Institute of Technology) Lab, a www.sportsbetcappers.com subsidiary.

Check back again soon for more hypotheses.

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