Thursday, April 2, 2015

2015 MLB NL Central Odds to Win Division

2015 MLB NL Central Odds to Win Division
By: Bankerz Bets (Follow me on Twitter @Bankerz_Bets)

This is the 4th installment of the 6-part blog on the MLB Odds to Win the Division. In this installment, I will cover the National League Central. Last season there were two teams representing the NL Central in the Playoffs, he divisional winner St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates finished only 2 games behind the Cardinals and despite winning the division, the Cardinals did not surpass their season win total of 91.5 set by the oddsmakers. Based on the offseason transactions, this division could be shaken up the most. The Cubs have made the biggest moves in recent franchise history, but the rest of the division has also made some moves. Out of all the divisions, this is the one that has me the most perplexed and not sure what to expect.

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NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals              +130
Arrivals: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Matt Belisle, Mark Reynolds

Departures: Shelby Miller, Daniel Descalso, Jason Motte, Pat Neshek, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Ellis, Justin Masterson, Shane Robinson





Depth Chart:
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Kolten Wong
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Matt Carpenter
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Jason Heyward
SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Lance Lynn
SP: John Lackey
SP: Michael Wacha
SP: Carlos Martinez
CL: Trevor Rosenthal

Pittsburgh Pirates               +260
Arrivals: A.J. Burnett, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Corey Hart, Jung-ho Kang, Steve Lombardozzi, Arquimedes Caminero

Departures: Russell Martin, Clint Barmes, Edison Volquez, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Josh Lindblom, Travis Snider




Depth Chart
C: Francisco Cervelli
1B: Pedro Alvarez
2B: Neil Walker
SS: Jordy Mercer
3B: Josh Harrison
LF: Starling Marte
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Gregory Polanco
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Gerrit Cole
SP: Charlie Morton
SP: A.J. Burnett
SP: Vance Worley
CL: Mark Melancon

Chicago Cubs                                    +350
Arrivals: Jon Lester, Miguel Montero, Dexter Fowler, Jason Hammel, Drake Britton, Jason Motte, Tommy La Stella, Chris Denorfia, David Ross, Jonathan Herrera, Donn Roach, Taylor Teagarden

Departures: Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily, Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Villanueva, Josh Vitters, Arodys Vizcaino, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Kalish



Depth Chart
C: Miguel Montero
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Javier Baez
SS: Starlin Castro
3B: Mike Olt
LF: Chris Coghlan
CF: Dexter Fowler
RF: Jorge Soler
SP: Jon Lester
SP: Jake Arrieta
SP: Jason Hammel
SP: Kyle Hendricks
SP: Travis Wood
CL: Hector Rondon

Milwaukee Brewers                       +1200
Arrivals: Adam Lind, Luis Sardinas, Corey Knebel, Neal Cotts, Luis Jimenez, Dontrelle Willis

Departures: Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Mark Reynolds




Depth Chart
C: Jonathan Lucroy
1B: Adam Lind
2B: Scooter Gennett
SS: Jean Segura
3B: Aramis Ramirez
LF: Khris Davis
CF: Carlos Gomez
RF: Ryan Braun
SP: Kyle Lohse
SP: Matt Garza
SP: Wily Peralta
SP: Mike Fiers
SP: Jimmy Nelson
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
 
Cincinnati Reds                   +1200
Arrivals: Marlon Byrd, Anthony DeSclafani, Burke Badenhop, Paul Maholm, Brennan Boesch, Jason Marquis, Kevin Gregg

Departures: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey, Ryan Ludwick, Ramon Santiago, Jack Hannahan



Depth Chart
C: Devin Mesoraco
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Zack Cosart
3B: Todd Frazier
LF: Marlon Byrd
CF: Billy Hamilton
RF: Jay Bruce
SP: Johnny Cueto
SP: Homer Bailey
SP: Mike Leake
SP: Tony Cingrani
SP: Anthony DeSclafani
CL: Aroldis Chapman

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Prediction: I have absolutely no clue as to who will win this division. The Cardinals have a great club and have had a great ball club in the past few seasons. Until they are mathematically out of the playoff picture, they are always a dangerous team. The Brewers surprised a lot of people last season and held the #1 spot in the division for a good while during the season before dropping down. The Chicago Cubs will attract the most public attention due to their offseason acquisitions and I will personally be interested in seeing how this season pans out for them. I think the odds on the Cincinnati Reds are a bit high as they are due to progress this season. Based on their odds, the Reds are my pick for the Sleeper team in the NL Central.

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Wednesday, April 1, 2015

2015 MLB AL Central Odds to Win Division

2015 MLB American League Central Odds to Win Division
By: Bankerz Bets (Follow me on Twitter @Bankerz_Bets)

This is the 3rd installment of the 6-part blog on the MLB Odds to Win the Division where I will cover the American League Central. The Detroit Tigers were the favorites to win this Division and they won it as expected. However, what wasn’t expected was the Kansas City Royals being right on their tail, being only 1 game behind the Tigers. Both teams made the Playoffs but it was the Royals who went deeper, all the way to the World Series! The Baltimore Orioles knocked out the Tigers in their first series. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox were the bottom feeders while the Cleveland Indians remained right around .500. Based on the odds, this should be a tight race for the Division and we should be in for some good matchups. Many big name players have come into this Division, which will certainly attract attention. Let’s take a look at the oddsmakers MLB AL Central Betting Odds.

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AL CENTRAL
Detroit Tigers                        +180
Arrivals: Yoenis Cespedes, Alfredo Simon, Anthony Gose, Shane Green, Tom Gorzelanny

Departures: Devon Travis, Rick Porcello, Eugenio Suarez, Robbie Ray, Joel Hanrahan, Phil Coke, Jim Johnson, Torii Hunter, Max Scherzer

Depth Chart
C: Alex Avila
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Ian Kinsler
SS: Jose Iglesias
3B: Nick Castellanos
LF: Yoenis Cespedes
CF: Anthony Gose
RF: J.D. Martinez
DH: Victor Martinez
SP: David Price
SP: Justin Verlander
SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Alfredo Simon
SP: Shane Greene
CL: Joe Nathan

Chicago White Sox    +300
Arrivals: Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Geovany Soto, Gordon Beckham, George Kottaras, Emilio Bonifacio, Zach Duke, Dan Jennings, Michael Ynoa, Rob Brantly, J.B. Shuck

Departures: Ronald Belisario, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, Andre Rienzo, Chris Bassitt, Dayan Viciedo, Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley, Moises Sierra, Jordan Danks

Depth Chart
C: Tyler Flowers
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Carlos Sanchez
SS: Alexei Ramirez
3B: Conor Gillapsie
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Avisail Garcia
DH: Adam LaRoche
SP: Chris Sale
SP: Jeff Samardzija
SP: Jose Quintana
SP: John Danks
SP: Hector Noesi
CL: David Robertson

Cleveland Indians     +300
Arrivals: Brandon Moss and Gavin Floyd

Departures: Jason Giambi

Depth Chart
C: Yan Gomes
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Jason Kipnis
SS: Jose Ramirez
3B: Lonnie Chisenhall
LF: Michael Brantley
CF: Michael Bourn
RF: Brandon Moss
DH: Nick Swisher
SP1: Corey Kluber
SP2: Carlos Carrasco
SP3: Trevor Bauer
SP4: Gavin Floyd
SP5: Danny Salazar
CP: Cody Allen

Kansas City Royals    +400
Arrivals: Alex Rios, Kendrys Morales, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Kris Medlen

Departures: James Shields, Billy Butler, Nori Aoki, Josh Willingham, Scott Downs, Aaron Crow

Depth Chart
C: Salvador Perez
1B: Eric Hosmer
2B: Omar Infante
SS: Alcides Escobar
3B: Mike Moustakas
LF: Alex Gordon
CF: Lorenzo Cain
RF: Alex Rios
DH: Kendrys Morales
SP: Yordano Ventura
SP: Jason Vargas
SP: Jeremy Guthrie
SP: Edinson Volquez
SP: Danny Duffy
CL: Greg Holland

Minnesota Twins       +2000
Arrivals: Tim Stauffer, Ervin Santana, Torii Hunter

Departures: Jared Burton

Depth Chart
C: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Danny Santana
3B: Trevor Plouffe
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Aaron Hicks
RF: Torii Hunter
DH: Kennys Vargas
SP: Phil Hughes
SP: Ervin Santana
SP: Kyle Gibson
SP: Ricky Nolasco
SP: Mike Pelfrey
CL: Glen Perkins
  
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Prediction: This Division will be very close and I am buying into the offseason moves made by the Chicago White Sox. Chris Sale is easily in the Top 5 pitchers in the league and with the addition of Jeff Samardzija, they could arguably be the best 1-2 punch in the league. Cabrera and LaRoche will also provide the hitting support and I really think they have a great chance this season. The Detroit Tigers have high expectations once again as they should, winning the Division the last 4 years in a row. However, I think this is the year where they won’t win the Division. It’s tough to against them, but when a roster looks too good to be true, it normally is. I think the Division could be decided between the White Sox and the Indians. The Indians hardly made any moves in the offseason and I think they are happy with what they have going on. They were only 5 games behind the Division Champs and I expect this team to progress this season. After exceeding expectations last season, I expect a regression from the Royals. They made some moves that I thought they shouldn’t have made and we could see a World Series hangover this season. The Twins were awful last season and hardly made any moves, so expect a similar season again.

Free MLB Pick
Chicago White Sox +300 to Win AL Central
Cleveland Indians +300 to Win AL Central

I’m picking both the White Sox and the Indians to win the Division. Absurd? Perhaps, but that depends on who you ask. Yes, only one can possibly win. However, I think both teams have the best chance of winning the Division and if either teams wins the Division, we cash! Here’s how it works:

Bet $100 on Chicago White Sox to Win $300
Bet $100 on Cleveland Indians to Win $300

If the White Sox win, we win $300 - $100 (bet on Indians) for a profit of $200.

If the Indians win, we win $300 - $100 (bet on White Sox) for a profit of $200.

So instead of having a 20% chance of winning with 1 team, we now have a 40% chance of winning by betting on another team.


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