Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Texas Longhorns vs TCU Horned Frogs College Football Betting Preview & Pick

Texas Longhorns (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OU) vs TCU Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OU)
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 3, 2015
Where: Aman G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Lines: TCU -15
Total: 71.5




The Texas Longhorns come in at 1-3 on the year and the seat under Charlie Strong seems to be getting hot. For the TCU Horned Frogs they have been dealing with many injuries on defense and at some point that may catch up to them in their quest for a National Title.  
  
Texas had some high hopes this year and they were supposed to be led by their defense, but that really hasn’t panned out. They brought back just 5 starters from last year, but they did have plenty of talent on the unit. Still they have taken some time to gel and come in ranked 115th in the nation in yards allowed (483 ypg), 107th vs the pass, 105th vs the run and 106th in points allowed (35.2). The defense isn’t the only area that they have had issues as their offense comes in ranked 110th in total yards and 78th in scoring (29 ppg). The offense was also supposed to be a strength of this team as they had 8 starters back from last year, including the entire OL. From the 4th quarter in the game vs Cal through the Oklahoma State 3 point loss the Longhorns have played much better, but this team still has issues on both sides of the ball and if they aren’t corrected then Texas will not get a bowl invite this year.  
The TCU Horned Frogs come in at 4-0 on the year, but their hopes of making it to the College football playoffs was almost dashed last week in their wild 55-52 win on the road vs Texas Tech. The Red Raiders really had them on the ropes and if it wasn’t for a miracle catch in the closing seconds by TCU then they would have lost that game. The big problem for the Horned Frogs in the last two games has been all the injuries to their defense and it has been the reason that they have allowed 89 points and 1115 yards in their last 2 games. Offensively there is nothing wrong with this team as they come in ranked 2nd in the nation in total yards (636.5 ypg) and 5th in scoring (51 ppg). The offense is led by Trevone Boykin, who should be one of the finalists for the Heisman trophy at the end of the year. So far he has thrown for 985 yards with 10 TDs and just 3 INT, while also rushing for 190 yards and 2 TDs.   



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Trends
Texas is:
3-8 ATS their last 11 games in October
Road team is 1-4 ATS the last 5 in the series
TCU is:
12-1 ATS off a SU Win vs an Opponent off BB SU losses
10-1 ATS their last 11 home games


Pick: TCU -15
Texas looked better in their last 2 games, but still this team is a mess and their defense is horrible. How will they stop the unstoppable TCU offense in this one. The answer is... They won’t. I don’t even see the best SEC defenses being able to stop this group. The Texas offense has come alive of late, but still they have consistency issues on that side of the ball and will be taking on a very angry TCU defense that has allowed 90 points in their last 2 games combined. TCU nearly lost their chance at the national title last week and I expect them to fight back this week and make sure that the game isn’t close at all. I see a blowout in this one.




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East Carolina Pirates vs SMU Mustangs College Football Betting Preview & Free Pick

East Carolina Pirates (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OU) vs SMU Mustangs (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 OU)
When: 4:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 3, 2015
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas
Lines: East Carolina -5.5
Total: 67
The East Carolina Pirates come in at 2-2 on the year, but one of their wins was a big one as they shocked Virginia Tech at home last week by a score of 35-28. The SMU Mustangs were not as fortunate as they lost at home to FCS foe James Madison, by a score of 48-45. SMU went just 1-11 last year and is now 1-3 to start this season.
  
James Summers Shocks Hokies
QB James Summers had a big game in the Pirates shocking home win over the Virginia Tech Hokies, who were 10 point favorites in the game. Summers is the backup to Blake Kemp and when Kemp went down James came in and hit 5 of 8 passes for 110 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 169 yards and another 2 TDs. His biggest run was a 41 yard scamper late in the 3rd quarter to put the Pirates up by 14 points heading into the final frame. Virginia Tech did score 7 points in the 4th, but it just wasn’t enough.

Ruffin McNeil had planned on giving him some playing time this week, he just hoped it wasn’t that way. The East Carolina offense is not the juggernaut it was last year as they rank just 82nd in the nation in total offense at 394 ypg after putting up 533 ypg last year. The Pirates also averaged 36 ppg last year and have put up just 27 ppg this year. Shane Carden is missed for sure.


SMU Off To A Bad Start
The SMU Mustangs are coming off a horrendous year in which they went just 1-11, getting outscored by 30 ppg in the process. This year they are a bit more competitive, but have still started just 1-3 on the year, which includes a hard fought 48-45 loss at home to one of the top FCS teams in the nation in James Madison. JMU led the game 17-14 at the half and then 41-31 before SMU took a 4 point lead with 2 minutes to go. That was all that JMU needed as they came back to win the game 48-45.
The SMU offense is far better than last year’s team that put up just 11 ppg and 269 ypg on the year, as they have averaged 454 ypg and 3.5 ppg so far. It is their defense that has been a problem, especially last week vs JMU when they allowed 729 yards, including 440 yards on the ground. For the year now SMU is dead last in the nation in total defense, allowing 603 ypg and 9th worst in points allowed, giving up 43.3 ppg.



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Pick: East Carolina -5.5
The East Carolina Pirates are not the same team they were a year ago and they could be without starting QB Blake Kep, but this team is still good enough to whip a bad SMU team . The Pirates have been very mediocre on defense this year, but I feel they will spap out in a big way vs an SMU defense that is the worst in the nation. Even though SMU lost by just 3 points to JMU, they were still outgained by over 200 yards in the game. The Pirates should have no problems picking apart this defense. The Pirates have allowed 424 ypg and 31 ppg on the year, but that is still far better than the defense of the Mustangs. I expect the Pirates to come up with just enough stops for them to win this one by at least 7 points.   

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Houston Cougars vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane College Football Betting Preview & Free Pick

Houston Cougars (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-0-1 OU) vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OU)
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 3, 2015
Where: H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Lines: Houston -  7
Total: 81.5


The Houston Cougars are off to a fast 3-0 start, which includes a road win over Louisville in week 2. Last week they got revenge on Texas State for an upset loss back in 2013, by crushing them 59-14. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had just two wins last year and already have that many wins this year. They are off their first loss of the year last week, which was a 52-38 loss, but they did cover the huge 31.5 point spread in the process.
  
Greg Ward Jr. Is doing it all
QB Greg Ward Jr. is off to a heck of a start this year and just think, Houston should have him for another year. The Junior QB from Tyler, Texas comes into the game having thrown for 785 yards and 8 TDs, with just 1 INT. That’s not all though as he also leads the team in rushing with 289 yards and 4 TDs. He has been the offense, but has had some help from Kenneth Farrow, who has 158 yards runsing so far, while his favorite target has been Brandon Wilson, who has 7 catches for 226 yards. That translates to a 32.3 ypc average folks.


In the game vs Texas State he posted a 253.6 QBR Hitting 17 of 21 passes for 274 yards with 4 TDs, while he also ran for 91 yards and 2 more TDs. Overall this year the Houston offense is 7th in total Yards (591 ypg) 23rd in passing (304.7 ypg) and 6th in scoring 48.3.

Tulsa Offense Unstoppable… Defense Is Pitiful
Last year the Tulsa offense was not that great as they put up just 412 yards of offense and just 25 ppg, but so far this year they have been nearly unstoppable, putting up 673 ypg overall, 390.7 ypg passing and 41.7 ppg. Two weeks ago the Golden Hurricane was involved in a shootout with the Oklahoma Sooners which saw 90 pons scored and over 1300 yards of total offense. The Tulsa offense accounted for 38 points, 603 yards overall and 427 yards passing in that game.


The bad news for Tulsa is that they allowed 773 yards of total offense to the Sooners including 497 yards through the air in the 52-38 loss, Defensively they rank 124th in yards allowed (575 ypg) and 113th in points allowed (39.0 ppg).      

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Trends
Houston is:
12-4 ATS their last 16 games in October
20-7-1 ATS their last 28 road games
21-7-1 ATS Their last 29 games off a SU win
Tulsa is:
1-7 ATS at home after allowing 40 or more points
1-5 ATS their last 6 home games
Pick: Houston -7
Both of these offenses are high powered, which should make for an entertaining game, but the Cougars do have the ability to play some defense and I feel that is where the game will be won and covered by them. Tulsa is not a great home team, while Houston knows how to play and win on the road. Just ask Louisville. Look for Houston to pull ahead in the 4th quarter and win this one by at least 2 Tds.   


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Connecticut Huskies vs BYU Cougars Friday College Football Betting Odds & Pick

CFB Preview: Connecticut Huskies vs BYU Cougars
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 10:15 PM ET, Friday, October 2nd, 2015
Where: Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Televised: ESPN 2
Odds:   BYU Opened up at 22.5 points favorites in this game and the Line has now come down to BYU -14.5. The OU line for the game currently sits at 45.5.




The UConn Huskies enter this game at 2-2 on the year, with their two wins coming against Villanova and Army at home, while their two losses were at Missouri and at home to Navy last week. Last year the Huskies were outscored by 15 ppg and were outgained by 100 ypg, but now they are in Bob Diaco’s 2nd season and he has made this team a bit more competitive. So far this year the Huskies have been outscored by just 0.8 ppg, while outgaining their opponents by 24.7 ypg. Their biggest shocker this year so far was a road trip to Missouri out of the SEC and the Huskies lost that game by just a 9-6 score. Much like last year the Huskies are a bad offensive team as hey average just 16.5 ppg and 320 ypg so far, but unlike last year they have been a very good defensive squad, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 295.3 so far. That is understandable that the defense would make a quick turnaround as Bob Diaco is a former DC.


The BYU Cougars had some very high hopes this year, but the Injury bug has hit them once again, especially at the QB spot and that now has them at just 2-2 on the year. The Cougars did start 2-0 with a miracle win at Nebraska to open their season and then a nice 11 point home win over Boise State in game 2, After that is has not been so good as the lost by 1 point at UCLA and then last week the offense could do nothing at all in the 31-0 loss at Michigan. The offense was supposed to really carry this team, but the loss of QB Taysom Hill has really hurt. Tanner Magnum did a nice job in relief at Nebraska and had a good game vs Boise State, but in the last 2 games he has done very little. The Cougars come in ranked 107th in the nation in total offense and 106th in scoring at 22.5 ppg. Not what they expected when the season started. Taysom was a big part and he helped power a running game that averaged 268 ypg back in 2013. That was his only year he was fully healthy and his year they have averaged just 108.3 ypg on the ground so far, which s 120th in the nation.   

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Free 2* College Football Premium Pick
[109] Connecticut +14.5 over BYU: The Cougars are stuck in the mud offensively right now and they will be taking on a much improved UConn defense. I don’t see the Cougars being able to pull away for the easy win in this one. They just won’t come up with enough offense to do so. The UConn offense is nothing special, but it looked much better in the loss vs Navy last week. UConn only lost by 3 at SEC Missouri, in which they were 21 points dogs and I see them being able to cover this one vs a BYU squad that just doesn’t have blowout capabilities right now.  


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Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats College Football Betting Preview & Free Pick

The Miami Hurricanes come into this game with a perfect 3-0 mark, which includes a 36-33 win in OT at home over Nebraska 12 days ago. The Cincinnati Bearcats were picked by many to win their division in the AAC, but so far they are 0-2 in the conference and 2-2 overall. The game will be played in Cincinnati and will be televised on ESPN at 7:30 PM (ET) Written by David Hess Follow Me on Twitter @DavidHess311
Betting Odds provided by 5Dimes
Miami                          -6.5
Cincinnati                   +6.5
Over/ Under:                68


Miami- So far the Canes have looked good this year, but two of their wins were vs Bethune Cookman and Florida Atlantic. No big deal there. They then played Nebraska on their home field and vs they did win the game, but it wasn’t easy as they let Nebraska outscore them 23-3 in the 4th quarter to send the game to OT, where the Canes eventually won the game. Brad Kaaya leads this offense and he has been solid so far, completing 61.4% of his passes for 839 yards with 5 TDs and just 1 INT. In the win over Nebraska he threw for 379 yards, but the Huskers do have a porous secondary. Overall this year Miami ranks 36th in total offense, 36th in passing and 20th in scoring (41.7 ppg). The Defense for Miami has been good, but they did allow Nebraska  462 yards of total offense and they could have similar problems vs the High powered Bearcats in this one.


Cincinnati- The Bearcats have not had the year they were expecting t so far as they currently stand at 2-2 overall and 0-2 in the ACC. They were supposed to to be the main contender for the conference title, but it just hasn’t panned out that way. Now to make matters worse for them they may be without QB Gunner Kiel, who took a vicious hit to the head in the loss to Memphis last Thursday night. The way the hit looked it is unlikely that he will make it back for this game. Backup QB Hayden came in and did a very nice job as he threw for 552 yards and 4 TDs in the game, but also had two picks. He was highly recruited out of HS and showed that he has all the tools to be a very good College QB. The Bearcat offense comes in ranked 3rd in the nation in total yards at 623 ypg and 24th in scoring at 40.3 ppg. It hasn’t been their offense that has them at 2-2, but their defense that ranks 74th in yards allowed and 99th in points allowed at 32.5 ppg.
    


Free College Football Pick
[104] Cincinnati +6.5 over Miami
I am going to look for the Bearcats to keep this one close. I know That Gunner Kiel is out, but Hayden Moore showed last week that he is more than capable of running this offense, after thrown for 557 yards vs Memphis. Now he has a week to prepare, so he should do well in this game, especially in front of the home crowd and on National TV. In their last game, the Canes faced their first real offense of the year (Nebraska) and allowed 33 points and 462 yards in the game, including 309 through the air. Moore should have a good game vs this defense. 

The Clinchers: Miami is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games, while Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Thursday night.

The Bearcats will give up some points, but I feel their offense will score enough to keep the game close.





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Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday Night Football Betting Preview & Pick

NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 1, 2015
Where: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pa
Televised: CBS/ NFL Network
Odds: The game started out as a pick, but money has come in on the Ravens and they are now 2.5 point favorites in the game. The OU line started at 46.5 and has been bet down to 43.5.




The Baltimore Ravens are still looking for their first win of the year as they have started out both 0-3 SU and ATS. The Ravens started out with a 19-13 loss at Denver and then were shocked in game 2 with a 37-33 loss at Oakland. Last week they lost 28-24 at home to the Bengals in a game that was very wild and saw 31 points scored in the last quarter of the game. The Ravens did take a 24-21 lead with 3;56 left in the game, but a 7 yards TD pass from Dalton to A.J. Green with 2:10 left I the game turnout to be the deciding score. The Ravens defense played well in their opener, but in their last two games the secondary has been shredded for 372 yards and 351 yards passing. That is not good, but hey will be catching a break here as they will not be facing Big Ben, but rather Michael Vick. The Ravens offense has picked it up of late as hey have put up 57 points in their last 2 games and they threw for 384 and 362 yards in the two games. Pittsburgh will have it’s hands full with this offense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers now have a dilemma as they will be without Big Ben for a few weeks. The Steelers have started at 2-1 on the year with their lone loss coming at New England on opening night. They then blasted San Francisco 43-18 in week 2 and then tragedy struck in the St Louis game when Big Ben got injured. The Pittsburgh offense really sputtered with Vick at QB as they scored just 12 points and put up just 259 yards of total offense. Leveon Bell did come back for that game, but was able to rush for just 62 yards. The Steelers have missed him so far as they are 22nd in the league in rushing, putting up just 93.3 ypg on the ground. Their passing offense so far ranks 3rd in the league, putting up 298.7 ypg so far. With Vick now at QB you can expect the Running game to pick up while the Passing game should diminish some.



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Free Pro Football Pick
[467] Pittsburgh +2.5 over Baltimore
Pittsburgh feels they will be fine with Vick at QB and i agree. Well at least in this first game. Michael didn’t do a whole lot last week vs the Rams, but I can see him having a better game in this one vs a porous Ravens secondary that has been torched the last 2 weeks. Getting torched by Andy Dalton is no big reason for concern, but getting torched by Carr and the Raiders is another matter altogether. I feel that Vick and this solid group of WR’s can do some damage in this game. It also helps that Bell now has a game under his belt and getting him going will just open up throwing lanes for Vick. The Steelers rate the better defense here, they are at home in primetime and Vick is getting another chance to shine. It all should add up to Pittsburgh winning this game outright.    


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Sunday, September 27, 2015

Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers Monday Night Football Betting Preview & Pick

NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, September 20, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Televised: ESPN
Odds: The game started out Green Bay favored by 6.5 points and has pretty much held that line all week. The OU opened up at 48 and has been bet up to 49.
The Kansas City Chiefs had a very nice 27-20 road win over Houston to open up their season and then last week they had a lead vs Denver with 2 minutes to go in the game before the Broncos tied it up and then with 27 seconds left Kansas City fumbled the ball, which Denver picked up and ran back for the winning score. It was really a tough loss for the Chiefs to endure and it will b interesting to see what kind of mindset they have for this game. The Chiefs offense was to be upgraded this year and on the surface it appears so as they have averaged 25.5 ppg so far, but looking deeper we see that they are 19th in total offense and 21st i passing offense. Special teams and defense has set them up with good field position and that is not something i would look for them to be able to to in this one. The defense has been middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed so far, while ranking 21st in points allowed (25.5 ppg). They are 23rd vs the pass, which could be a problem vs the high powered Packers.

The Packers started the year with a nice 31-23 win over lowly Chicago and then last week they got revenge from last years playoffs by beating Seattle 27-17. The game was actually closer than the final score indicates as the Seahawks led 17-17 heading into the 4th quarter and Green Bay outgained them by just 37 total yards in the game. The Packers have been on point offensively this year and many wondered how they would cope with he loss of Jordy Nelson. Well they have scored points, but still are averaging just 211.5 ypg through the air. Still the pickup of James Jones has helped them as he has 3 TDs through the first two games. The Loss of Nelson has changed their game plan some as they have run the ball more than passed it this year so far and hey have averaged 130 ypg rushing so far, which is slightly better than last year. On defense hey have allowed just 20 ppg so far, but are also 31st in the league vs the run and 21st in total yards allowed. This is still he best team in the North, but they do need someone else to step up at WR or they may be in trouble.
       


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Free Pro Football Pick
[467] Green Bay -6.5 over Kansas City
Im going to look to the Packers in this one. They are a tough team to beat at Lambeau and have the much better offenses in this game. Kansas City has feasted on TOs and great special teams play this year so far to help their offense out, but Rodgers just doesn't turn the ball overall home. The Chiefs will have to go the long way if they hope to score in this one and they just don't have the offense to be able to do that. Kansas City also turned the ball over 5 times last week vs the Broncos and if you do that here Rogers will make you pay Big.

The Clinchers: Green Bay is 11-2 ATS vs the AFC with revenge, while the Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS on MNF off a SU loss as a favorite. Also any undefeated MNF home team vs a non-division opponents is 20-4 ATS since 1990. 

Green Bay is the better team, playing at home on MNF and should walk away with a comfortable win here.




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