Showing posts with label College Football Odds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Football Odds. Show all posts

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan State Spartans Cotton Bowl Preview & Free Premium Play

Cotton Bowl Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, December 31, 2015
Where: AT&T Stadium In Arlington, Texas
Lines: Alabama -10
Total:  46
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The Michigan State Spartans had an excellent year as they come in at 12-1 on the year, while also going 91 SU vs Bowls teams, but they were just 4-6 ATS in those games. The Spartans had a bad loss to Nebraska earlier in the year, but still got here by winning the Big 10 Title game vs Iowa. Connor Cook leads what has been a very average offense that the Spartans had this year. He did hit just 56.8% of his passes, but didn’t make many mistakes as he had just 5 INT’s compared to 24 TD passes. He really just did enough to win games. The Spartans come in at 69th in the nation in total offense and 48th in scoring, putting up 32.1 ppg. The defense is where their bread is buttered as they come in ranked 23rd in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed, giving up just 20.5 ppg. The Spartans are 9th vs the run, but 73rd vs the pass and that could be an issue as the Tide has the ability to hit the big plays down the field.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are one again in the thick of the National Title chase. Boy it’s getting old as I for one am tired of seeing this team near the top of the heap every year. Still they had another fine season, going 12-1 overall, including 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS vs Bowl teams and they faced the toughest schedule of all the bowl teams this year. Alabama has once again done it with a stout defense that comes in ranked 2nd in the nation in yards allowed, 1st vs the run and 3rd in points allowed, giving up just 14.4 ppg. On offense they are lead by Heisman trophy winner Derrick Henry, who ran for 1986 yards and 23 TDs. It will be interesting to see him go up against the 9th ranked run defense. Their passing offense isn’t that good as it is 73rd in the nation, but they could hit some big plays down field vs a bad State pass defense.      



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[259] Michigan State +10 over Alabama
I am going with the Spartans here a I feel that this is just too many points to give a team that doesn’t make mistakes on offense and does play great defense. Alabama will have to throw some in this game and the Spartans should take away some of the running of Henry with their 9th ranked run defense. The Spartans can be thrown on, but still passing is not a strength of the Tide. On offense Michigan State is rather conservative, but all year they have been doing enough to win the games and I feel that their offense will do enough to keep this one close, while their defense does the rest. Bama may win this game, but by less than a TD. The clincher is that Mark Dantonio is 12-1 ATS as a dog and have pulled 9 outright upsets in those games. This one has 24-21 written all over it.

 

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Tuesday, December 29, 2015

USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers Holiday Bowl Betting Preview & Free Pick

Holiday Bowl Preview: USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 10:30 PM ET, Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Where: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California
Lines: USC -3.5
Total:  50.5
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The Wisconsin Badgers come in at 9-3 on the year, but they were just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS vs bowl teams this year and their SOS was one of the lower of the bowl teams. That means they really beat up on the weaker teams they played. The Badgers have done it this year with a stout defense that comes in ranked 3rd in the nation in yards allowed, giving up just 267.1 ypg, while ranking first in points allowed, giving up just 13.1 ppg. The Badgers allowed 35 points to Alabama in their opener and they allowed more than 21 points just one other time this year and that was at Maryland. The offense is a conservative one, but with their defense they can afford to be. Joel Stave is the QB and he did throw for 2470 yards, but also threw just 10 TDs to 11 INTs. What’s more alarming for this offense is that they are 97th in the nation in rushing. That is not Wisconsin football. This is a team that is used to being in the top 20 in the nation in rushing. Still they have scored 27.1 ppg, which has been more than enough because of the defense they have.     
The USC Trojans come in at 8-5 n the year, which really is not what they were expecting. This is a team hat had loads of talent coming back from last year and were supposed to have a much better year than they did. Still they played in the weak Pac-12 South and won the division, before losing 41-22 to Stanford in the Pac-12 Title game. USC faced the third toughest schedule of all the bow teams and were 6-5 SU & 5-6 ATS in their games vs Bowl teams. The Trojans are just the opposite of the Badgers are they are much stronger on offense than on defense. The offense is led by Cody Kessler, who had a strong year, but more was expected. He did throw for 3315 yards and 28 TDs, but that was 500 yards less and 11 TDs than the year before. Offensively hey are 34th in total yards and 30th in scoring, putting up 34.9 ppg. The defense was to be the real strength of this team this year, but that was not the case as they ranked 66th in yards allowed, 99th vs the pass and 52nd in points allowed, giving up 25.9 ppg.



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[255] Wisconsin +3.5 over USC
I’m going with the Badgers in this one. Their defense has been excellent this year and I feel that will be the difference in this game. The Trojans have been good on offense this year, but they have also been inconsistent and they have struggled vs some good defenses like the second meeting vs Stanford (22) and an earlier meeting vs Washington (12). This will be the best defense they will have faced so far this year. USC does not have that kind of defensive presence this year and the Wisconsin offense should wear them down enough to put up enough points to get the outright win here.

 

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Air Force Falcons vs California Golden Bears Armed Forces Bowl Preview & Free Pick

Armed Forces Bowl Preview: Air Force Falcons vs California Golden Bears
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 2:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Lines: California -7
Total:  67.5
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The Air Force Falcons are in the Armed forces Bowl. Something just seems right about that. Air Force comes in at 8-5 on the year which included a loss in the MWC Title game to San Diego State. The Falcons have gone just 3-5 vs bowl teams this year, but 5-3 AT in those games. The Falcons run the triple option offense and are led by QB Karson Roberts, who threw for 1446 yards and also ran for 674 yards on the year. The Falcons have 7 players on their team that have totaled at least 300 yards on the ground this year, which makes this offense very tough to stop as you don’t know who to key on, especially if you don’t see this style of offense all that much. The Falcons come in at 2nd in the nation in rushing at 322.1 ypg and while they don’t throw it a lot, when they do it’s usually for big plays as they are 2nd in the nation in yards per pass attempt at 10.7.  The Falcons average 33.9 ppg on the year, while on defense they are 24th in yards allowed and 40th in points allowed, giving up just 23.2 ppg.

The Cal Bears didn’t have a great year as they are 7-5 overall and just 4-5 in the Pac-12. They went just 4-5 SU and 3-6 vs bowl teams this year, but did outgain they by 24 ypg. The Bears were expecting a whole lot more this year, especially with QB Jared Goff running the offense. Goff did have a strong year as he threw for 4247 yards, with 37 TDs and 13 INTs. Goff has many solid targets to throw to as 6 players have caught at least 36 passes and 460 yards on the year, including Bryce Treggs, who leads the team with 813 yards. The Bears bring in the 4th best passing offense in the nation and it will be interesting to see them go up against Air Force’s 24th ranked passing defense. Offense was not a problem for his team as they ranked 23rd in the nation in scoring, putting up 36.5 ppg. The problem for the Bears has been a leaky defense, that ranks 110th in total yards allowed and 88th in points allowed, giving up 30.2 ppg. The Bears have really struggled against the run, where they are 104th in the nation and that is without facing an option team this year.     



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[241] Air Force/ California Over 67.5
Let’s look for a high scoring game here. Both teams play an uptempo style and while Air Force likes to run the ball a lot they will be going up against a team that is 104th in the nation vs the run and that is without seeing the option yet. The Falcons will get the Bears to suck their defense in closer to the line and then they will be able to hit big plays downfield for some easy scores. The Bears have a high power passing attack and one that the Falcons haven’t seen yet this year so I look for their 24th ranked passing defense to struggle in this one. The over is 22-7-1 in Cal’s last 30 non-conference games, while the Over is 7-3 in the Falcon’s last 10 games in December. This one has 70+ points written all over it.   
 

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Saturday, December 26, 2015

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Washington Huskies Heart Of Dallas Bowl Preview & Free Pick

Heart of Dallas Bowl Preview: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Washington Huskies
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 2:20 PM ET, Saturday, December 26, 2015
Where: Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas
Lines: Washington -8.5
Total:  62
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What a turnaround it has been for the Southern Miss Golden eagles as they came into the year having won just 4 total games the last three year, but they walked away with a 9-4 record on the year and  trip to the Conference USA Title game, which they lost 45-28 to Western Kentucky. The biggest improvement on the team this year was an offense that put up no more than 20 ppg and 365 ypg the last the years, but they come into this game averaging 519.8 ypg (10th in nation) and 40.6 ppg (12th). That is a heck of a jump and it has been due to the play of Nick Mullens, who has thrown for 4145 yards this year with 36 TDs and just 12 INTs. This is a very good offensive team. The Golden Eagles have also improved their defensive pay as well as they have allowed just 364 ypg and 24.2 ppg this year after giving up 451 ypg and 35 ppg last year. This is the most improved team in the nation this year, but remember they did take on the 125th rated schedule in the land.

The Washington Huskies mediocre 6-6 year after posting an 8-6 mark in Chris Petersen’s first year. The Huskies did finish strong as the had blowout wins over Oregon State and Washington State to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. Washington got very inconsistent play from their offense this year, but the defense was solid and remember they play in the Pac-12 12 vs a bunch of explosive offensive teams. Washington comes in ranked 29th in the nation in yards allowed and 12th in points allowed, giving up just 17.8 ppg. Phil Steele actually has this defense rated 6th in the nation. The offense really exploded in their final two games, scoring 97 points, but for the most part it has been an average offensive team that ranks 71st i total yards and 61st in scoring, putting up 29.5 ppg on the year. This team is hard to beat if their offense plays like it did in the last two games as their defense is just too good to let opposing offenses get much off them.  



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[230] Washington -8.5 over Southern Miss
looking at the raw stats you would think that the Golden Eagles have the edge up, but after further review the call on the field has been reversed. The Huskies took on 10 bowl teams this year and faced the 32nd ranked schedule in the nation, while the Golden Eagles have taken on just 5 bowl teams and the 125th ranked schedule in the land. That means they put up those stats vs very weak competition, especially their offense, which didn’t face a defense higher than 51st in the nation. Now they will take on one of the best in the nation. Southern Miss was just 1-4 SU vs bowl teams this year and the 4 losses were by an average of 16 ppg. The stats on the surface say one thing, but digging a bit deeper we find they they are misleading . Washington is the better team here and they have the added motivation of playing for a winning season, plus they also have a Chris Petersen on the sideline, who is 5-0 ATS in bowls off a win of 30 or more. Huskies roll here.  
 

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Thursday, December 24, 2015

Cincinnati Bearcats vs San Diego State Aztecs Hawaii Bowl Preview & Free Pick

Hawaii Bowl Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats vs San Diego State Aztecs
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, December 24, 2015
Where: Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii
Lines: San Diego State -2.5
Total:  56.5


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The Cincinnati Bearcats have had an up and down season and eventually finished at 7-5 on the year.Their biggest problems this year have been a leaky defense and injuries to QB Gunner Kiel, who has missed time a couple of times. He will be out for this game and that will put the ball in the hands of Hayden Moore, who had a decent, but not spectacular year. He threw for 1683 yards in the 7 games he played this year, but 557 of those yards came in the game vs Memphis. Since that game has has averaged just 223 ypg through the air. He has also completed just 58.3% and while he threw 9 TDs, je also tossed 8 INTs. He is no Kiel, who connected on 65% of his passes, while throwing 19 TDs and 11 INTs. The offense is still 4th overall and 3rd in passing, while scoring 36.1 ppg, which is 25th in the land. They have needed all the offense they can get as their defense checks in at 82nd in yards allowed and 89in points allowed, giving up 30.1 ppg. Their biggest weakness on defense is vs the run, where they rank 92nd in the nation and that is not good when you’re about to face the powerful ground attack of the Aztecs.

Speaking of those Aztecs, they have had a solid season this year as they have gone 10-3 on the year and won the Mountain West Title with a win over Air Force. The Aztecs are rolling as they come into this game on a 9 game win streak and they are seeking their first 11 win season since 1969. San Diego State’s offense is built around the running of Donnel Pumphrey, who has run for 1554 yards and 16 TDs on the year, while also posting 395 yards receiving and another 3 TDs. He leads an offense that is 14th in the nation in rushing and must be licking his chops at facing a bad Cincinnati run defense. The passing game for the Aztecs ranks 119th in the nation, but they are effective when they do throw it and that is thanks to their ground attack. The MO of the Aztecs this year has been to use that powerful ground attack on offense and then let their defense do the rest. That defense is very good as they come in ranked 5th in the nation in yards allowed, 13th vs the pass, 7th vs the run and 10h in points allowed, giving up just 17.4 ppg on the year. During their 9 game win streak they have been even stingier, allowing just 12.7 ppg over that stretch. This is clearly a clash of styles between these teams.   



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[224] San Diego State/ Cincinnati Over 56.5
This is clearly a clash of styles between these teams, and I feel that both sides will make enough plays to put this game over the total. The Bearcats can be run on and that will only open up the throwing lanes for some big Aztec plays down field. San Diego State has averaged 36.9 ppg in their last 8 games and the Bearcats have given up 37 ppg vs bowl teams this year. Now I know that the Aztec defense has been very strong this year, but the Bearcats have had extra prep time and they will find away to score some points in this one. Even without Kiel in there they still have a strong offense that has scored 30 points or more in 8 games this year. The Over is 7-1 in Cincinnati’s last 8 games in December, while the Over is 9-4 in San Diego State’s last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. San Diego State just played a game with Air Force where both teams are top 20 in TOP and that game put up 51 points. I see this one hitting the 60’s rather easily.   
 

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Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Boise State Broncos vs Northern Illinois Huskies Poinsettia Bowl Preview & Free Pick

Poinsettia Bowl Preview: Boise State Broncos vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 4:30 PM ET, Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Where: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California
Lines: Boise State -9.5
Total:  57


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The Boise State Broncos come in off a four loss season, which is not something that they are used to. They struggled down the stretch losing two of their last three games with the two losses coming at home vs New Mexico and Air Force. Heck, they didn’t even reach the Mountain West Conference Title game this year. This is really uncharted territory for this team. The biggest issue for the for the Broncos during their 3-3 stretch to end the year was a defense that really struggled. In their 5-1 start to the year the Broncos allowed just 12 ppg, but in their last 6 game they have given up 30.7 ppg. The one thing they did do good all year was stopping the run, ranking 12th in that department, giving up just 117.7 ypg on the ground for the year. That is key as the Huskies are a running team.  Offensively, they have had little troubles this year as they come in ranked 18th in in the nation in total yards and 16th in scoring, putting up 37.8 ppg.

The Northern Illinois Huskies had a decent year as they come in at 8-5 overall, but they did finish 0-2 down the stretch, which included a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Title game. They were 14 point dogs in that game, yet couldn’t cover the spread. The should have QB Ryan Graham back for this game after he missed the MAC Title game. Still the offense goes through mostly Joel Bouagnon, who ran for 1270 yards and 18 TDs this year. Therein lies the problem for the Huskies as the strength of their offense will be going up against the strength of the Broncos defense. The Huskies are 29th in rushing but just 64th in passing. On defense they have been very average this year as they check in at 66th overall and 54th in points allowed, giving up 25.5. They do struggle vs the pass, allowing 233.4 ypg, which is 78th in the nation. That weakness goes up against the strength of the Boise offense.      



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[217] Boise State -7.7 over Northern Illinois
Strength on strength vs strength on weakness. That will be the theme of this game. The Northern Illinois Huskies are a running team. They average 47.2 rushes per game and that plays into the strength of the Broncos as they come in ranked 12th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 117 ypg on the ground so far. If the Huskies can’t run then they will be put in many longdown situations and they don’t have the passing game to get them out of it. Now on the other side of the ball we have a Boise State offense that ranks 20th in the nation in passing (304 ypg), going up against a Huskie defense that ranks 78th in the nation vs the pass (233.4 ypg). The Broncos have clear edges on both sides of the ball, plus let’s also note that the Broncos were +70 ypg vs bowl teams, scoring 29 ppg vs those teams, while the Huskies were -74 ypg vs bowl teams, putting up just 21 ppg in those games. I look for Boise to finish their year with a DD bowl win.


 

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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl Temple Owls vs Toledo Rockets Betting Preview & Free Pick

Boca Raton Bowl Preview: Temple Owls vs Toledo Rockets
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Where: FAU Football Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
Lines: Temple -2.5
Total: 49.5


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The Toledo Rockets had a very strong year as they come in at 9-2 overall and a win here would give them their first 10 win season since 2001. They are not really happy about how the regular season ended as a 35-30 home loss to the Western Michigan Broncos knocked them out of the MAC Title game. Now they will have an interim HC for this game as Matt Campbell is off to Iowa State. Still it was a very solid year for them and it has been their defense that has been a big part of their success this year.  Their defense comes in ranked 52 in yards allowed, but 23rd in points allowed, giving up just 21.1 ppg on the year. They can be thrown on as they are 106th vs the pass, but Temple is more of a running team and the Rockets check in at 13th in the nation vs the run allowing just 118.2 ypg on the ground. QB Phillip Ely leads the offense and  he has had a decent year, throwing for 2680 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs, but he isn’t terribly accurate as he has hit just 54.9% of his passes. Still this is a balanced offense that averages 250 ypg through the air and 213 ypg on the ground, while putting up 35.3 ppg. They have the clear edge on offensive in this game.
The Temple Owls also had a solid season as they come in at 10-3 on the year, but they also also not happy at how the season ended as they finished 2-2 down the stretch, which kept them from making a trip to a New Year’s Day 6 Bowl. Much like the Rockets, the Owls have done it will a strong defensive effort this year as they come in ranked 17th in the nation in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed, giving up just 19.2 ppg. They have been equally solid vs the pass (39th) as they have been vs the run (20th). The one downfall is that they allowed 210 ypg at home, but 438 ypg on the road. Still this is a very strong defense that has had extra prep time, so they will be ready here. They have needed to be strong on defense as their offense has not been at good, ranking 83rd in total offense.  They have put up 30.8 ppg on the year, but that is still very average by the standards of today’s offenses. The Owls also have one of the best special teams units in the nation as well. Temple has the edge in coaching, defense and special teams in this one.
 



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[714] Temple/ Toledo Under 49.5
Both of these teams play excellent defense and that should really keep the scoring down. Even vs bowl teams his year the teams have been very strong as the Owls have allowed just 20 ppg vs the bowl teams they they have played, while the Rockets have allowed just 23 ppg in their games vs bowl teams. Both teams also rank 29th or better in terms of yards per play allowed, so they don’t give up many big plays, meaning teams have to work the ball downfield against them. I see both teams having trouble moving the ball on these two strong defenses, which should keep the final score at 42 points or less.       
 

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