College Basketball Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 14, 2016
Where: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Florida
Lines: Florida State -1.5
Total: 148.5
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The Miami Hurricanes have had a solid season so far as they come in at 19-4 overall and have been ranked in or near the top 15 for most of the year. Miami now sits in a three-way tie for 2nd in the ACC, just one game behind Carolina, which makes this a must win game for them. Miami has won six of their last seven games in league play, but that on loss was on the road (at NC State) and they were crushed by 16 on that game. Miami has won three of the last four in the series, including taking a 13 point home win over the Noles earlier in the year. Miami has been a str4ong offensive team that year that comes in averaging 78 ppg (70th) on 47.9% shooting (27th) and they are 11th in the land at the charity stripe (76%). The Canes are not just an offensive team as they know how to play some defense as well, ranking 52nd in points allowed, giving up just 66.1 ppg, 102nd in defensive FG% overall and 92nd in three-point defense. Miami is a solid team at both ends of the floor and they rarely beat themselves, which will make them a very tough out in both the ACC Tournament and the Big Dance.
The Florida State Seminoles have had a solid season as well, but they are a mediocre 6-6 in the ACC so far. They are 8-2 on this floor and have beaten the likes of Clemson and Virginia at home, but also have lost to Pittsburgh and Carolina here as well. The Noles just had a four game win streak snapped, but how impressive was that win streak as three of the wins came vs NC State, Wake Forest and Boston College, who are all a combined 4-32 in ACC play. Not great resume builders there. FSU has been a very solid offensive team tyhis year as they come in ranked 56th in scoring at 78.7 ppg and 76th in shooting overall (46.2%), but they struggle from long range, where they are 207th, hitting just 33.9% from long range. On defense they are not nearly as strong as Miami as they come in at 211 in points allowed at 73.1 ppg, while allowing teams to hit 43.6% of their shots overall (200th) and 34.6% from long range (190th). This is an average team at best and may make it to the big dance, but if they do it will probably be an early exit for them, just like it will be in the ACC Tournament.
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[859] Miami +1 over Florida State
The Florida State Seminoles have had a solid season overall, but still they are just 6-6 in the ACC and four of their wins in conference play have come vs team with a combined 4-32 record in league play. In other words they haven’t beaten too many good teams in the ACC so far. They do own a win over Virginia on this floor, but I can’t see that happening here vs a solid Miami team that rarely beats itself, is playing to stay in the ACC race and has a huge edge on defense. The Dog is 4-1-1 the last six in this series, while the Noles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs a team with a winning record, plus we note that Miami is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win. Cane take a tight one here as their defense and excellent FT shooting helps them pull away late.
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