New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos AFC Championship Preview & Free Pick

NFL Playoff Preview: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 3:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2016

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado

Lines: New England -3

Total:  44.5

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The New England Patriots are once again primed to make a trip to the Super Bowl and all that is standing in their way is a trip to Denver to face the great Peyton Manning and that very strong Denver defense. This is not a great place for them to play at though as they are just 1-5 ATS their last six trips here. The Patriots have been an injury riddled team for much of the year, especially in the vaunted WR corp, but still that hasn’t stopped Brady from throwing for 4770 yards with 36 Ts and just 7 INTs on the year. That translates into the 5th best passing offense in the league. They are a healthy WR corp right now and Brady did have a solid game last week vs a tough KC defense as he threw for 302 yards in the 27-20 win. This is a potent offense that ranks 3rd in the league in scoring, putting up 29.1 ppg. They are not just offense this year as that defense has also been solid, ranking 9th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed (19.7 ppg)

Denver has had  another solid year as they went 12-4 overall and won the #1 seed in the AFC in the process. Peyton is now 3-2 in the playoffs when the team he is playing for has the number 1 seed, after last week’s 23-16 win over Pittsburgh. The Broncos won the top seed, despite inconsistent play at the QB spot, especially when Manning was out. Even when he was in the struggled to be consistent on offense. The Broncos come in at 14th in the league in passing and Manning tossed just 10 TDs compared to 17 INTs on the year. This was not his best year by a long shot, but still here they are playing for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The offense was really led by a solid ground attack that was led by the duo of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson, who combined for 1583 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season. The running game should help open up throwing lanes for Manning vs a solid Patriots pass defense. Overall the offense has been very average this year, but it hasn’t been their offense that has led them. It has been a defense that ranks 1st in yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 4th in points allowed, giving up just 18.5 ppg. The Patriots strong passing attack vs the Broncos pass defense will be fun to watch.    

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[311] New England/ Denver Over 44.5

Let’s play the Over in this one. Manning and company looked out of sorts last week, but I expect them to have a better showing this week vs the New England defense and he will have to as you can bet that the Pats will put up their fair share of points. New England has one of these best offenses in football and they have averaged 26.5 ppg o the road this year, so I do expect they to hit at least the mid 20s in this one, even against the league’s number one defense. The Bronco offense hasn’t been that good this year, but they did score 23 points last week and I expect about the same here. Six of the last 7 games in this series hit the 50’s and this one should as well. This one has 27-23 written all over it.

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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Thursday Night Football Preview & Free Pick

NFL Preview: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 19, 2015

Where: Gillette Stadium In Foxboro, Massachusetts

Televised: CBS

Odds: The line opened with New England being 7.5 point favorites and hey are now 9 point favorites in most spots. The OU line has come down from 51.5 to 50.5.

       

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Miami started the year slow and Joe Philbin was let go as head coach and all they have done since the change is go 2-0, while outscoring Tennessee and Houston by a combined 82-36. Yikes. Miami was supposed to have an improved offense this year, but they did fail to score more than 20 points in each of their first four games. Now they are playing a bit more like they were expected to, but New England does have a bit tougher defense that the two that Miami faced recently, so it will be interesting to see how they do in this game. On Defense Miami has not been great, ranking 21st overall, 30th vs the run and 15th in points allowed (22.8 ppg). Miami is clearly playing better than they were with Philbin, but this is a much tougher test than they faced in their last two games.  

Ya have to wonder how much the Pats have left as they took out Indy two weeks ago and the Jets last week. Both games were highly emotional for the Pats, but still New England did win both to stay undefeated this year. The Patriots have done it this year with what else but a high powered offensive attack that comes in ranked 2nd in the league in total yards and 1st in scoring, putting up 35.5 ppg so far. I’d say Brady is a little pissed over the whole Deflatgate issues and will now take it out on opposing defenses. The New England defense has been very average this year as they come in ranked 15th in total yards allowed and 12th in points allowed, giving up just 21 ppg so far. So Far this year it is clear that New England is the best team in the AFC.

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[101] Miami/ New England Over 51

There will be some wind during the game, but still I feel that both teams will be able to score here.The Patriots have been awesome on offense all year so far and at home they have put up 36.3 ppg. The Miami offense started slow, but they have now come on to score 82 points in their last two games and they have averaged 25.3 ppg on the road. Miami will have to throw to keep pace with New England and Tannehill has been hot of late, so I feel he will be up t the task here. Hey the Jets and Pats put up 53 points on this field last week, so why can’t the Dolphins and Pats. I look for a Thursday night shootout here.   

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New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night Football Preview and Free Premium Pick

This is the game that Brady has been waiting for since last January as he finally gets a shot at the team that caused him so much trouble in the offseason. The Patriots have gone 4-0 to start the year and have outscored their opponents by nearly 19 ppg so far, while the Colts are 3-2 on the year, but still not playing all that well. Written by David Hess Follow Me on Twitter @DavidHess311

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds provided by 5Dimes

New England          -9.5           

Indianapolis           +9.5

Over/Under:       54.5

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The New England patriots are 4-0 on the year and are looking lik a team that just may not be beaten this year. In their last 2 games they have beaten Jacksonville by 34 at home and Dallas by 24 on the road, allowing a total of 23 points in the two games, while scoring 81. Overall they have been the top offense in terms of yards per game 423.8 ypg and passing (331 ypg), while putting up 37.9 ppg, which is second in the league. This offense is a machine right now, but the surprising part of their team this year has been a defense that has allowed just 19 ppg on the year. This was not supposed to be a strong defensive squad, but they have shown otherwise. This looks very much like a complete team and at this point there is no question who the best team in the AFC is.

The Colts got off to an 0-2 start and their low point of the year was the 20-7 road loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football. Since then they have won 3 in a row, but those three wins were not really impressive, especially who they played against. After the Jets loss, the Colts won at Tennessee 35-33, then won at home 16-13 in OT vs the Jags, before winning at Houston by 7 in a game that they were outgained by 121 yards. The Colts have now been outgained in every game, which is really not good for a team that will now face the Patriots. Indy’s problems this year have really been on offense, which wasn’t expected as they had Andrew Luck, who was to have a huge year. Uh not so fast as the Colts are just 15th in the league in passing after being one of the better passing offense in the league last year. Their other issues is a pass defense that is 28th in the league. This is not really a good matchup for the Colts under normal circumstances, but now it has been made worse by the fact that they will face an angry Brady.       

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[273] New England -9.5 over Indianapolis

Okay can anyone else see the Patriots looking to run up the score in this one? I know I can. Yes Indy will be very motivated as well, but their are way over their heads in this one vs a New England team that has won the last 4 in the series by at least 21 points in each game. And that was without extra motivation. Brady is pissed about deflategate and has been waiting a long time to get some revenge on the Colts. So far he has put up big numbers this year, throwing for 1387 yards with 11 TDs and no INTs so far. That Pats lead the league in total offense and 1st in passing while scoring 37.2 ppg, which is 2nd in the league. On defense they are 12th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed, giving up just 19 ppg. The Colts come in ranked 23rd in total offense and 24th in scoring (19.8 ppg) , while on defense they are 28th in yards allowed, 28th vs the pass and 15th in points allowed. Brady will have a field day vs this porous pass defense as the Pats win this one by at least 2 TDs.  

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots NFL Preview & Free Pick

NFL Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, August 30, 2015
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Televised: NBC 

Odds: The Patriots opened up as 6.5 point favorites and at one point was bet down to 3, but with Brady being able to play the line is now up to 7. The OU line has also been on the move as it opened at 54.5 and has been bet down to 51.5.

The Steelers are the reigning AFC North Champs and they just may be in line to repeat this year, but they have some holes, especially on defense and at DC, where Dick Lebeau has moved on. That may be the biggest lost for this defense. Maybe not but it is pretty big, especially with a defense that is aging and will no long have Troy P. roaming the field after he retired. During the preseason the Pittsburgh defense looked pretty solid, but playing against many backups will do that. The offense for Pittsburgh is again led by Big Ben and he has plenty of weapons to throw to, including Antonio Brown, who just may be the best WR in the game, especially now that Nelson has been lost for year for Green Bay. They will have to rely on their passing game till Le'Veon Bell comes back from suspension as the Steelers totaled just 57 ypg on the ground in the preseason.  The have little depth at that position and need bell back.

The Patriots are now breathing a sigh of relief after learning this week that Brady will not have to serve any of the suspension that was handed down to him by Roger Goodell. He didn't look great in the preseason, but I would expect that he will come out with fire in his eyes and this is now one pissed off Brady, after the summer of turmoil. Brady doesn't have all the weapons that he had in the past, but he still has Edelman and a healthy Gronkowski, plus Amendola is improving. The running game may take a step back after Vereen and Ridley both departed, but still Legarrette Blount should step in and have a nice season, especially running behind a very good OL. The defense for this team lost some depth in the offseason and it showed in the preseason as they allowed 369.3 ypg overall, including 278.8 ypg through the air. Browner and Revis will be missed in this secondary, while big run-stuffing DT Vince Wilfork will also be missed. 

Where am I going with this game? That's right I will be look at the Over here. Both of these offenses will put plenty of points on the board this year, while the defenses will be suspect, especially in the secondary as both teams have proven in the Preseason. Teams will be able to throw on these two squads and that is what I expect here as both teams have very dangerous aerial attacks. This one should be fun and even though money has come in on the Under here I look for a flatout shootout in this one. 

Play (461) Pittsburgh/ New England Over 51.5 in the season opener.     

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NFL New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints Betting Odds & Free Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 7:30 PM ET, Saturday, August 22, 2015
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome Louisiana, New Orleans
Televised: Locally

Odds: The Saints opened as 2 points favorites and it has been bet down to 1 or 1.5 in most shops. The O/U Line opened at 42 and has been bet up to 43.

The Patriots have had a ton of distractions in the offseason, mainly because of Deflate game and maybe some of that spilled over to their opening game vs the Packers in which they lost 22-11. It was a very lackluster effort from the team and it really looked like the offseason took had a negative impact on them. In that game the Pats could must just 117 yards through the air and were outgained by 195 yards overall. It was not a good game for them. Brady only played for 1 series and was 1-4 for just 10 yards. If Brady doesn’t play on opening day then it will be Garappolo getting the nod and while he was 20-30 for 159 yards, he also threw a pick and was sacked 7 times in the game. They will need a much better effort from him if he plays the first few games for the Pats and I would expect them to continue to give him a lot of time in the preseason.  

The Saints are also coming off a loss in their first preseason game of the year, but they played a bit better than that Pats did in their game. New Orleans lost by a score of 30-27 to Baltimore, while outgaining the Ravens by 6 yards in the contest. Drew Brees didn’t [play in the game, but still the Saints had 266 yards passing, with Ryan Griffin leading the way with 112 yards and 1 TD on 10-17 passing. RB Khiry Robinson was really star of the offense as he has 35 yards rushing on 2 carries, plus 3 receptions for 37 yards and a TD. One this that the Saints really want to look at is thir depth in the secondary in this game. They really struggled last week and need to shore that up as the season approaches. The backups should get plenty of time as much of the starting secondary may be out for this one.

I can see this game going over the total. The Pats cannot be as bad as they were on offense last week and will be taking on a much weaker secondary than they did vs the Packers. I expect Brady to get a bit more reps here and Garappolo should have a better showing than he did last week. The Saints can score and Brees should get some time this week, but when he is not in there they still showed the ability to score. The Pats defense is solid as far as starters go, but they also lack good depth just like the Saints do. We’re going to go high in this one.   

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