Showing posts with label nfl odds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl odds. Show all posts

Friday, January 22, 2016

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos AFC Championship Preview & Free Pick

NFL Playoff Preview: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 3:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2016
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Lines: New England -3
Total:  44.5
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The New England Patriots are once again primed to make a trip to the Super Bowl and all that is standing in their way is a trip to Denver to face the great Peyton Manning and that very strong Denver defense. This is not a great place for them to play at though as they are just 1-5 ATS their last six trips here. The Patriots have been an injury riddled team for much of the year, especially in the vaunted WR corp, but still that hasn’t stopped Brady from throwing for 4770 yards with 36 Ts and just 7 INTs on the year. That translates into the 5th best passing offense in the league. They are a healthy WR corp right now and Brady did have a solid game last week vs a tough KC defense as he threw for 302 yards in the 27-20 win. This is a potent offense that ranks 3rd in the league in scoring, putting up 29.1 ppg. They are not just offense this year as that defense has also been solid, ranking 9th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed (19.7 ppg)
Denver has had  another solid year as they went 12-4 overall and won the #1 seed in the AFC in the process. Peyton is now 3-2 in the playoffs when the team he is playing for has the number 1 seed, after last week’s 23-16 win over Pittsburgh. The Broncos won the top seed, despite inconsistent play at the QB spot, especially when Manning was out. Even when he was in the struggled to be consistent on offense. The Broncos come in at 14th in the league in passing and Manning tossed just 10 TDs compared to 17 INTs on the year. This was not his best year by a long shot, but still here they are playing for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The offense was really led by a solid ground attack that was led by the duo of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson, who combined for 1583 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season. The running game should help open up throwing lanes for Manning vs a solid Patriots pass defense. Overall the offense has been very average this year, but it hasn’t been their offense that has led them. It has been a defense that ranks 1st in yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 4th in points allowed, giving up just 18.5 ppg. The Patriots strong passing attack vs the Broncos pass defense will be fun to watch.    
Free NFL Playoff Play
[311] New England/ Denver Over 44.5
Let’s play the Over in this one. Manning and company looked out of sorts last week, but I expect them to have a better showing this week vs the New England defense and he will have to as you can bet that the Pats will put up their fair share of points. New England has one of these best offenses in football and they have averaged 26.5 ppg o the road this year, so I do expect they to hit at least the mid 20s in this one, even against the league’s number one defense. The Bronco offense hasn’t been that good this year, but they did score 23 points last week and I expect about the same here. Six of the last 7 games in this series hit the 50’s and this one should as well. This one has 27-23 written all over it.

 

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Sunday, January 17, 2016

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos NFL Playoff Betting Preview & Free Pick

NFL Playoff Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 4:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 17, 2016
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Lines: Denver  -7.5
Total:  41
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The Pittsburgh Steelers had a slow start to their year, but they come in having won 7 of their last 9 games, including last week’s penalty fest vs the Bengals. The Steelers really struggled on offense vs a tough Bengals defense and they could have similar problems in this one, especially since they will be without their big play threat, WR Antonio Brown, who caught 136 passes for 1834 yards this year and that will be tough to replace. Not only is Brown out, but so is #1 RB Deangelo Williams. Yes the Steelers still have LeVeon Bell at RB and Markus Wheaton at WR, but still this is a weakened offense. Pittsburgh also has a beaten up Roethlisberger as well and this offense will be facing the top defense in the league.  It could be a struggle for them to score. Defensively the Steelers have not been great, especially vs the pass, where they rank 30th in the league. They are 11th in points allowed, but still it is not a defense that comes close to the caliber of the Broncos
Speaking of Denver, they had another solid year as they went 12-4 overall and won the #1 seed in the AFC in the process. Peyton is just 2-2 in the playoffs when the team he is playing for has the number 1 seed. For the Broncos they won the #1 seed despite the fact that Peyton missed a bunch of time. Well he is back and had some extra time to prepare for this Steelers defense that is beat up and has struggled vs the pass this year. The Broncos do have some offensive weapons, like Thomas and Sanders, plus a solid running game led by the duo of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson, who combined for 1583 yards and 12 TDs this year. The running game should really open up throwing lanes for Manning. Overall the offense has been very average this year, but it hasn’t been their offense that has led them. It has been a defense that ranks 1st in yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 4th in points allowed, giving up just 18.5 ppg.   
Free NFL Playoff Play
[308] Denver -7.5 over Pittsburgh
The Broncos are the play here. The Steelers are beat up and they come off an awful offensive showing vs the Bengals. They will miss Brown and Williams here and Pittsburgh just doesn’t have enough weapons to cover the losses, especially vs the league’s top rated defense. The Broncos do have a huge edge on that side of the ball, especially at Mile High where they have allowed just 247 ypg and 18.5 ppg on the year. On offense the Broncos have not been that good, but I see Peyton having a huge game here as he is tired of hearing that he is done. The Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in this series. Bottom line here is that the Steelers just won’t come up with enough offense to win or even keep this one close.
 

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Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers NFL Playoff Betting Preview & Free Pick

NFL Playoff Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers
Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 17, 2016
Where: Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Lines: Carolina  -1.5
Total:  44
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The Seattle Seahawks did not have a great year overall, but they have played very well down the stretch and that is usually what matters. The Seahawks enter this game having won seven of their last 8 games, including last week’s 10-9 win over Minnesota, which was played in sub zero conditions. When people think of the Seahawks it is usually about their defense first and that is understandable with the way they have played defense down the stretch. During their last 6 games, the Seahawks have allowed just 10.67 ppg, which is pretty darn good. For the year this Seahawk defense ranks 2nd in the league in yards allowed , 2nd vs the pass, 1st vs the run and 1st in points allowed, giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Offense has been very solid as well for the Seahawks as they rank 4th in total yards, 3rd in rushing and 5th in scoring putting up 26.4 ppg. The Seahawks really exploded on offense down the stretch as they put up 32 ppg during their last 8 regular season games. They do get a boost in this game as it looks like Marshawn Lynch is a go for them , which really aids their ground attack.

For the Carolina Panthers, they had an amazing season as they made it to 14-0 before suffering their first loss of the year, which was a 7 point loss at Atlanta, The Panthers have usually been know for a strong defense and this year was no different, but what was added to the mix was an offense that led the league in scoring, putting up 31.2 ppg. They have been led by a strong running game that ranks 2nd in the league at 142.6 ppg. Jonathan Stewart has been very solid, rushing for 989 yards with 6 TDs, while the second leading rusher is QB Cam Newton, who rumbled for 686 yards and 10 TDs at 4.8 yards per pop. A true dual threat QB and has really been the engine that makes this offense go. THe Panthers do rank 24th in passing, but still when they pass they have hit some big plays and that is because of an effective running game. Now back to the defense, which has been very good this year as they come in ranked 6th in the league in in yards allowed, 4th vs the run and 6th in points allowed, giving up just 19.2 ppg.        
Free NFL Playoff Play
[305] Seattle +2.5 over Carolina
The Carolina Panthers had a great year, but I feel it end here vs a Seattle team that is looking to make up for last year’s super bowl blunder. Getting Marshawn Lynch back for the Seahawks is big and it will really help them have some more balance offense. They will still run it a lot but still, having Lynch run the ball will open up more throwing lanes for Wilson, who has been very effective down the stretch. The Carolina offense has been very effective as well this year, but they are going up against a defense that has been playing out of their minds of late and I expect them to struggle in this one. The way Seattle has played offense down the stretch I feel that the offenses are a tie, while Seattle has the edge on defense and it will be their defense that wins the game for them.

 

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Wednesday, October 21, 2015

49ers vs. Seahawks Hypothesis

Analysis and Hypothesis Formulated by The Scientist @TheScientistSBC

When pouring over all of the stats put up by two of the NFL's brightest young arms, one thing is for certain... San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick leads Seattle QB Russell Wilson in number of tattoos. 

Abstract - Game Details

  • Game Type: NFL Football
  • Teams: Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
  • Date/Time: Thursday, October 22, 2015 at 8:25 pm 
  • Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA
  • Line: San Francisco 49ers +5.5 -- Over/Under: 42 Click HERE for latest odds
  • TV Network: CBS, NFL

Introduction

  • The Rivalry -- The Seahawks currently lead the all-time series record 18–15, including 10 in the playoffs.  In 2002, the Sea Pigeons and Gold Diggers moved in together into a crowded 4 team NFC West division. Thus playing each other twice (and in 2013 thrice), per year as divisional foes. As far as rivalries are concerned, it's still a teenager of 13yrs., but quite precocious since there is so much hatred between the two division foes (Pigeons lead since '02 16-11), or maybe not (according to Richard Sherman who said the rivalry is "not bit at all".)
    • Wilson-Kaepernick Era. (Seachickens lead 5-2, including 2-0 last year with a 36-10 combined score)

Data - Seattle Seahawks


The Weehawks are looking to turn things around with a 2-4 record.  Still sniffing out that first road victory of the year and attempting to snap back-to-back (very narrow) losses. They're still a run first team and appear to be capable even if Marshawn Lynch can't go again with the bad hamstring injury (although all signs point to yes as he's listed as probable today).  Offensive line has been awful thus far in protecting Wilson, allowing league worst 26 sacks.
  • QB Russell Wilson - 68.9% comp. for 1,433yds, 7TDs/3INTs 
  • Wideouts - 238ypg (ranked 23rd), 4 40+yd catches (11), 65 1st downs (20)
    • Jimmy Graham - 29rec./344yds/2TDs
    • Doug Baldwin - 26/291/2
    • Jermaine Kearse and 3rd rd pick (from Kansas St) Tyler Lockett both have shown some flashes but neither has really stepped forward as the true #2 WR.
  • Running game - 137.8ypg (ranked 2nd), 2 TDs, 1FUM, 1 40+yd run
    • Thomas Rawls leading the way with 334 yards & 1TD until Lynch is back and 100% healthy.
  • Defense - 20.8ppg & 319.5ypg. 
    • LB K.J. Wright - 45 tkl, 1FF 
    • OLB Bruce Irvin - 13tkl & 3.5 sacks
    • Earl Thomas - 25tkl, 5PD, 2INT, 1FF
    • Bobby Wagner (status probable, pectoral) - 41tkls, 0.5sacks, 2PD
  • Injuries (OUT) - nickel CB Marcus Burley, backup DT Jordan Hill, and backup C Patrick Lewis


Data - San Francisco 49ers 

The Winers are looking to string together back-to-back victories for the first time this season.  And they appear to have turned the corner, with solid play in their last two (narrowly losing to the Giants 2wks ago). Averaging a league low 16.7ppg and 321.1ypg (30th). Defense has not recorded a sack in the last two games but they've been able to hurry the QB 39 times this season (4th in the league).

  • QB Colin Kaepernick - 62.9% comp. & 1,329yds, 6TDs/5INTs
    • 4TDs/0INTs in last 2gms w/ 115 QB Rating 
  • Thru the Air - 221.5ypg (29th), 6TD (27th), 7 40+yds (2)
    • Anquan Boldin - 28/333/2 (63% of production in last 2)
    • Torrey Smith - 14/323/2 (75 & 76yd TDs).  Notes indicate Torrey Smith is only 26yo… uncertain why it seems like he’s been around forever.
    • TE Garrett Celek - 14/131/1. Solid thus far in his 1st season w/ starting duties
    • FB Bruce Miller - 5/112/0 in last 2gms 
  • On the Ground - 118.3ypg (12th), 4TDs (15th), 4.2ypc (11th), 1st down% 22.9 (16th)
    • RB Carlos Hyde (que) - 430yds &3TDs, 4.8ypc, 1FUML 
  • Defense -  26.7ppg (25th) & 409ypg (31st), 3rd down conv 42% (25th)
    • ILB NaVorro Bowman- 59 tkls 1sack (31tlks in last 2gms) 
    • OLB Aaron Lynch - 17tkls, 3 sacks, 2PD 
    • CB Tramaine Brock - 27tkls, 2sacks, 5PD 2INTs 
  • Injuries (QUE) - RT Erik Pears (Back) Boldin (hammy) and Hyde (foot) 

Anquan Boldin shows why he rocks, at age 35 as he's looking
forward to attempt his 3rd straight 100yrd game against a Sea
defense allowing only 235ypg thru the air.
These defenses of Seattle and SF are clearly different from year’s past as they were ranked towards the top of NFL. Here are previous year’s defensive efficiencies, or DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value Over Average) based provided by Football Outsiders
2012: -14.5% (2nd) and -14.4% (3rd), respectively
2013: -25.9% (1st) and -4.6 (13th)
2014: -16.8% (1st) and -10.1% (5th)
2015: -1.1% (12th) and 19.1% (32nd)*

*SF has the 2nd highest variance (due to their recent better play) and also the 3rd strongest schedule of opposing offenses (7.8%, which is equivalent to playing the Atlanta offense every week).

As far as offenses are concerned, Seaslugs have been consistently average while the 49ers again, started slow and have picked things up, thus the highest variance.  Here are the offenses DAVE rating (combination of DVOA and preseason projection, currently 27% of number thru week 6).
2012: 18.5% (4th) and 16.5% (5th)
2013: 9.4% (7th) and 9.1% (8th)
2014: 16.8% (5th) and -0.4% (16th)
2015: 1.3% (14th) and -13.0% (29th)*
*keep in mind the greatest variance at 15.7% and strength of combined defenses played is -4.4% (equivalent to playing Patriot’s D every week).

Results – Conclusion


DESPITE only one game out of seven in the Wilson/Kaepernick era (2012-present) has a game gone over 42, with an average of 32.6 combined points, I put more weight into how these two team are playing recently as opposed to historically, although it’s not a bad idea to keep that as a frame of reference.
With that being said, neither of these two teams have stopped anyone through the air, so I expect big numbers from Wilson and Kap, and their core of wideouts.
The numbers have been studied and they do not support a continuation in the under trend, and so this game should easily go over the 42 total as both teams reach the 20pt threshold.

On a short week and the fact Seattle hasn't won a road game yet, and a lot of problems on both sides of the ball yet to be fixed, it might be a long night for Wilson and company in Santa Clara.


The Scientist's Hypothesis - over 42

Acknowledgments

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Football Outsiders - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/
In addition to the The Scientist's hypothesis here in this article, he also has a GOW Theory on this game.  It is the stronger play, which is being saved for the "NFL weekly package", and it also includes an entire week's worth of picks.  Email The Scientist thescientistsbc@gmail.com to receive a "Welcome to the S.H.I.T. Laboratory" 50% off coupon.

  The Scientist conducts all of his game analysis with all of his best hypotheses from The S.H.I.T. (Sports Handicapping Institute of Technology) Lab, a www.sportsbetcappers.com subsidiary.

Check back again soon for more hypotheses.





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Thursday, September 24, 2015

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com
By: Bankerz Bets (Follow Me on Twitter @Bankerz_Bets)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com
We have an AFC North divisional matchup this NFL Sunday between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. This game will be televised on CBS at 1:00pm eastern time.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds provided by 5Dimes
Cincinnati Bengals             +2.5 (-105)         
Baltimore Ravens               -2.5 (115)        
Over/Under:
o44.5 (-110)
u44.5 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals will be on the road to take on their divisional rival Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals are currently 2-0, with a 1-0 record in road games, and a 0-0 (3-3 last year) divisional record. The Ravens are currently 0-2, with a 0-0 (6-2 last year) record in home games, and a 0-0 (3-3 last year) divisional record.
The Cincinnati Bengals have won 3 of the last 3 meetings, with an average score of 28 points per game and an average scoring margin of 9. Meanwhile the Baltimore Ravens have averaged 19 points per game in their last 3 meetings. The Cincinnati Bengals have a 3-0 record against the spread and a 2-1 OVER/UNDER record in the last 3 meetings between these two teams as well.
More recently, the last time these divisional rivals met, the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Baltimore Ravens with a final score of 27-24. The Cincinnati Bengals covered the +3 point spread and the game went OVER the 44.5 point total. The Cincinnati Bengals controlled the clock with a 30:44 time of possession and had 2 turnovers and 2 takeaways.
Cincinnati Bengals Injury Report
NAME, POS
STATUS

A.J. Green, WR
Probable

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB
Probable
Baltimore Ravens Injury Report
NAME, POS
STATUS

Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB
Questionable

Breshad Perriman, WR
Doubtful

Eugene Monroe, OT
Day-to-day
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens - UNDER 44.5

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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com
By: Bankerz Bets (Follow Me on Twitter @Bankerz_Bets)
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Pick and Betting Odds - Sunday September 27 2015 | SportsBetCappers.com
We have an AFC East divisional matchup this NFL Sunday between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. This game will be televised on CBS at 4:25pm eastern time.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Betting Odds provided by 5Dimes
Buffalo Bills                  +2.5 (+100)         
Miami Dolphins             -2.5 (-120)        
Over/Under:
o43 (-110)
u43 (-110)
Best Stat for this Game:
In the last 15 meetings between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins, the Point Spread hasn’t mattered as the Team that won the game has also covered the spread.
The Buffalo Bills will be on the road to take on their divisional rival Miami Dolphins. The Bills are currently 1-1, with a 0-0 (4-4 last year) record in road games, and a 0-1 divisional record. The Dolphins are currently 1-1, with a 0-0 (4-4 last year) record in home games, and a 0-0 (3-3 last year) divisional record.
The Buffalo Bills have won 2 of the last 3 meetings, with an average score of 19 points per game and an average scoring margin of 2. Meanwhile the Miami Dolphins have averaged 10.7 points per game in their last 3 meetings. The Buffalo Bills have a 2-1 record against the spread and an 0-3 OVER/UNDER record in the last 3 meetings between these two teams as well.
More recently, the last time these divisional rivals met, the Miami Dolphins defeated the Buffalo Bills with a final score of 22-9. The Miami Dolphins covered the -3.5 point spread and the game went UNDER the 40.5 point total. The Miami Dolphins controlled the clock with a 32:22 time of possession and had 2 turnovers and 0 takeaways.
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
NAME, POS
STATUS

Percy Harvin, WR
Probable

LeSean McCoy, RB
Probable

Jerry Hughes, DE
Questionable

Marquise Goodwin, WR
Questionable

Aaron Williams, S
Questionable

Corey Graham, S
Probable
Miami Dolphins Injury Report
NAME, POS
STATUS

Jordan Cameron, TE
Questionable

Lamar Miller, RB
Questionable

Dion Sims, TE
Questionable

Branden Albert, OT
Questionable

Ryan Tannehill, QB
Probable

Reshad Jones, S
Probable

Cameron Wake, DE
Probable
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Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins - UNDER 43

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