Wednesday, October 21, 2015

49ers vs. Seahawks Hypothesis

Analysis and Hypothesis Formulated by The Scientist @TheScientistSBC

When pouring over all of the stats put up by two of the NFL's brightest young arms, one thing is for certain... San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick leads Seattle QB Russell Wilson in number of tattoos. 

Abstract - Game Details

  • Game Type: NFL Football
  • Teams: Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
  • Date/Time: Thursday, October 22, 2015 at 8:25 pm 
  • Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA
  • Line: San Francisco 49ers +5.5 -- Over/Under: 42 Click HERE for latest odds
  • TV Network: CBS, NFL

Introduction

  • The Rivalry -- The Seahawks currently lead the all-time series record 18–15, including 10 in the playoffs.  In 2002, the Sea Pigeons and Gold Diggers moved in together into a crowded 4 team NFC West division. Thus playing each other twice (and in 2013 thrice), per year as divisional foes. As far as rivalries are concerned, it's still a teenager of 13yrs., but quite precocious since there is so much hatred between the two division foes (Pigeons lead since '02 16-11), or maybe not (according to Richard Sherman who said the rivalry is "not bit at all".)
    • Wilson-Kaepernick Era. (Seachickens lead 5-2, including 2-0 last year with a 36-10 combined score)

Data - Seattle Seahawks


The Weehawks are looking to turn things around with a 2-4 record.  Still sniffing out that first road victory of the year and attempting to snap back-to-back (very narrow) losses. They're still a run first team and appear to be capable even if Marshawn Lynch can't go again with the bad hamstring injury (although all signs point to yes as he's listed as probable today).  Offensive line has been awful thus far in protecting Wilson, allowing league worst 26 sacks.
  • QB Russell Wilson - 68.9% comp. for 1,433yds, 7TDs/3INTs 
  • Wideouts - 238ypg (ranked 23rd), 4 40+yd catches (11), 65 1st downs (20)
    • Jimmy Graham - 29rec./344yds/2TDs
    • Doug Baldwin - 26/291/2
    • Jermaine Kearse and 3rd rd pick (from Kansas St) Tyler Lockett both have shown some flashes but neither has really stepped forward as the true #2 WR.
  • Running game - 137.8ypg (ranked 2nd), 2 TDs, 1FUM, 1 40+yd run
    • Thomas Rawls leading the way with 334 yards & 1TD until Lynch is back and 100% healthy.
  • Defense - 20.8ppg & 319.5ypg. 
    • LB K.J. Wright - 45 tkl, 1FF 
    • OLB Bruce Irvin - 13tkl & 3.5 sacks
    • Earl Thomas - 25tkl, 5PD, 2INT, 1FF
    • Bobby Wagner (status probable, pectoral) - 41tkls, 0.5sacks, 2PD
  • Injuries (OUT) - nickel CB Marcus Burley, backup DT Jordan Hill, and backup C Patrick Lewis


Data - San Francisco 49ers 

The Winers are looking to string together back-to-back victories for the first time this season.  And they appear to have turned the corner, with solid play in their last two (narrowly losing to the Giants 2wks ago). Averaging a league low 16.7ppg and 321.1ypg (30th). Defense has not recorded a sack in the last two games but they've been able to hurry the QB 39 times this season (4th in the league).

  • QB Colin Kaepernick - 62.9% comp. & 1,329yds, 6TDs/5INTs
    • 4TDs/0INTs in last 2gms w/ 115 QB Rating 
  • Thru the Air - 221.5ypg (29th), 6TD (27th), 7 40+yds (2)
    • Anquan Boldin - 28/333/2 (63% of production in last 2)
    • Torrey Smith - 14/323/2 (75 & 76yd TDs).  Notes indicate Torrey Smith is only 26yo… uncertain why it seems like he’s been around forever.
    • TE Garrett Celek - 14/131/1. Solid thus far in his 1st season w/ starting duties
    • FB Bruce Miller - 5/112/0 in last 2gms 
  • On the Ground - 118.3ypg (12th), 4TDs (15th), 4.2ypc (11th), 1st down% 22.9 (16th)
    • RB Carlos Hyde (que) - 430yds &3TDs, 4.8ypc, 1FUML 
  • Defense -  26.7ppg (25th) & 409ypg (31st), 3rd down conv 42% (25th)
    • ILB NaVorro Bowman- 59 tkls 1sack (31tlks in last 2gms) 
    • OLB Aaron Lynch - 17tkls, 3 sacks, 2PD 
    • CB Tramaine Brock - 27tkls, 2sacks, 5PD 2INTs 
  • Injuries (QUE) - RT Erik Pears (Back) Boldin (hammy) and Hyde (foot) 

Anquan Boldin shows why he rocks, at age 35 as he's looking
forward to attempt his 3rd straight 100yrd game against a Sea
defense allowing only 235ypg thru the air.
These defenses of Seattle and SF are clearly different from year’s past as they were ranked towards the top of NFL. Here are previous year’s defensive efficiencies, or DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value Over Average) based provided by Football Outsiders
2012: -14.5% (2nd) and -14.4% (3rd), respectively
2013: -25.9% (1st) and -4.6 (13th)
2014: -16.8% (1st) and -10.1% (5th)
2015: -1.1% (12th) and 19.1% (32nd)*

*SF has the 2nd highest variance (due to their recent better play) and also the 3rd strongest schedule of opposing offenses (7.8%, which is equivalent to playing the Atlanta offense every week).

As far as offenses are concerned, Seaslugs have been consistently average while the 49ers again, started slow and have picked things up, thus the highest variance.  Here are the offenses DAVE rating (combination of DVOA and preseason projection, currently 27% of number thru week 6).
2012: 18.5% (4th) and 16.5% (5th)
2013: 9.4% (7th) and 9.1% (8th)
2014: 16.8% (5th) and -0.4% (16th)
2015: 1.3% (14th) and -13.0% (29th)*
*keep in mind the greatest variance at 15.7% and strength of combined defenses played is -4.4% (equivalent to playing Patriot’s D every week).

Results – Conclusion


DESPITE only one game out of seven in the Wilson/Kaepernick era (2012-present) has a game gone over 42, with an average of 32.6 combined points, I put more weight into how these two team are playing recently as opposed to historically, although it’s not a bad idea to keep that as a frame of reference.
With that being said, neither of these two teams have stopped anyone through the air, so I expect big numbers from Wilson and Kap, and their core of wideouts.
The numbers have been studied and they do not support a continuation in the under trend, and so this game should easily go over the 42 total as both teams reach the 20pt threshold.

On a short week and the fact Seattle hasn't won a road game yet, and a lot of problems on both sides of the ball yet to be fixed, it might be a long night for Wilson and company in Santa Clara.


The Scientist's Hypothesis - over 42

Acknowledgments

SportsBetCappers.com - Sports Picks Forums, The Best Sports Expert Sports Picks, Sports Blogs, Sports Odds, Free Picks, and much more!

Football Outsiders - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/
In addition to the The Scientist's hypothesis here in this article, he also has a GOW Theory on this game.  It is the stronger play, which is being saved for the "NFL weekly package", and it also includes an entire week's worth of picks.  Email The Scientist thescientistsbc@gmail.com to receive a "Welcome to the S.H.I.T. Laboratory" 50% off coupon.

  The Scientist conducts all of his game analysis with all of his best hypotheses from The S.H.I.T. (Sports Handicapping Institute of Technology) Lab, a www.sportsbetcappers.com subsidiary.

Check back again soon for more hypotheses.





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