The UFC will have their first PPV event of the new year as UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit takes place this Saturday, January 2, 2016 from Las Vegas, Nevada. The UFC 195 card will begin with the UFC Fight Pass Prelims, followed by the FOX Sports 1 Prelims, and finally the PPV Main Card. In the main event, Robbie Lawler will put his welterweight title on the line against the #4 welterweight contender, Carlos Condit, scheduled for five 5 minute rounds.
* All odds provided by 5Dimes
Abel Trujillo (12-7) +105 vs Tony Sims (12-3) -125 / Lightweight Bout
Over 1 ½ Rounds (-140)
Under 1 ½ Rounds (+120)
Abel Trujillo - a 33 year old explosive orthodox fighter who stands at 5”8 with a 70” reach. Trujillo is coming into this fight off back-to-back losses, both by submission. His last fight was 56 days ago on November 7, 2015 against Gleison Tibau. As the betting underdog based on the closing odds, Trujillo is 3-3 +0.75 Units.
Tony Sims - a 30 year old southpaw fighter who stands at 5’11” with a 70” reach. Sims is also coming into this fight off of a loss, but by a 3 round decision. His last fight was 132 days ago on August 23, 205 against Olivier Aubin-Mercier. As the betting favorite based on the closing odds, Sims is 1-0 +1.00 Unit.
Keys to Victory: Tony Sims totally decides how this fight goes down. Sims cannot trade with Trujillo on the feet, that is a recipe for disaster. Sims needs to wear Trujillo down on the cage and shoot for the takedowns. He needs to get Trujillo on the mat and tire Trujillo out and work his way towards a submission. Sims won’t beat Trujillo on the feet and if he wants any chance of winning this fight, the fight will need to take place on the mat. On the other hand, because of the fact that Trujillo is coming off of back-toback submissions losses, I can't imagine him preparing for anything else but submission defense. Trujillo must do everything in his power to prevent Sims from taking this fight to the mat and keep this fight standing. He must also keep his back off the cage and prevent this fight from staying close. Footwork, getting in and out quickly, and staying busy is what Trujillo must do to win this fight.
Diego Brandao (24-10) +180 vs Brian Ortega (9-0) -220 / Featherweight Bout
Over 1 ½ Rounds (-165)
Under 1 ½ Rounds (+145)
Diego Brandao - a 28 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 5”7 with a 68” reach. Most of the casual UFC fans probably remember Brandao from seeing him on one of Conor McGregor’s highlight reel, as McGregor made quick work of him by a first round TKO. However, Brandao is a very explosive fighter who packs a heavy punch for his size. He submitted Dennis Bermudez in the first round to win the Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale, and has gone 5-3 in the UFC since. His last fight was 98 days ago on September 26, 2015, where he defeated Katsunori Kikuno by first round TKO, earning the Performance of the Night bonus. As the betting underdog based on the closing odds, Diego Brandao is 0-2 -2.00 Units.
Brian Ortega - a 24 year old switch fighter who stands at 5”8 with a 69” reach. Ortega is making his third appearance in the UFC and he sports a perfect record. He is coming into this fight off of a third round TKO victory over Thiago Tavares 210 days ago, which earned the Fight of the Night bonus. As the betting favorite, Brian Ortega is 3-0 +3.00 Units.
Keys to Victory: Diego Brandao must keep his emotions in check. His biggest problem is his fight IQ, as he totally abandons his gameplan and starts swinging for the fences. His takedown defense must be in full effect and he needs to utilize good footwork, picking his shots, but throwing punches in bunches with power. Brian Ortega will have a 1 inch height and reach advantage over Brandao. Although Ortega has good striking, I think he’ll want to keep this fight close and close the distance against Brandao. Brandao has been shown to have very poor cardio and his punches weaken as he gasses. The goal will be to weather the storm of Brandao and methodically and technically finish this fight.
Lorenz Larkin (16-4) +200 vs Albert Tumenov (16-2) -240 / Welterweight Bout
Over 1 ½ Rounds (-150)
Under 1 ½ Rounds (+130)
Lorenz Larkin - an 29 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 5”11 with a 72” reach. Prior to Robbie Lawler’s decision loss to Johny Hendriks at UFC 171, Lorenz Larkin was the last person to defeat Lawler. Larkin scored a decision victory over Lawler on Strikeforce in 2012. Lorenz Larkin is one of the few fighters to come over from Strikeforce and have a pretty good UFC run. However, he has only won 3 of his 7 UFC fights and none were against top 10 competition. He is on a 2 fight win streak, earning back-to-back TKO victories in the first and seconds rounds. His last fight was 189 days ago on June 27, 2015, where he defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio by second round TKO, earning the Fight of the Night bonus. As the betting underdog based on the closing odds, Lorenz Larkin is 1-2 -0.90 Units.
Albert Tumenov - a 24 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 5”11 with a 73” reach. Tumenov comes into this fight off 4 straight UFC victories, 3 of which were by TKO. His last fight was 91 days ago on October 3, 3015 where he defeated Alan Jouban by first round TKO, earning the Performance of the Night bonus. As the betting favorite based on the closing odds, Albert Tumenov is 4-1 +1.90 Units.
Keys to Victory: Both fighters have 16 victories, none of which have come by submission. Larkin has never shown the promise he was said to have shown, losing to lackluster opponents. Meanwhile Tumenov’s only 2 losses came by a decision and a split decision. I believe it will soon be the era of the Russian fighters, and there will soon be a few Russian title holders in 2016-17. This won’t be a step up in competition for Tumenov, yet a step up in experience. The odds are justified in this matchup, yet I think this fight may last longer than people expect.
#3 Stipe Miocic (13-2) -230 vs #2 Andre Arlovski (25-10) +190 / Heavyweight Bout
Over 1 ½ Rounds (-155)
Under 1 ½ Rounds (+135)
Stipe Miocic - a 33 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 6”4 with a 80” reach. Miocic’s last fight was 238 days ago on May 9, 2015, where he defeated Mark Hunt in the 5th round by TKO. He has won 7 of his last 9 UFC fights, which is a pretty difficult feat to accomplish in the heavyweight division. He is coming into this fight off a 5th round TKO victory against Mark Hunt, but more importantly, he is coming into this fight on 2 absolute wars! The fights with Hunt and Junior Dos Antos were nothing short of absolute fireworks from all fighters.
Andre Arlovski - a 36 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 6”3 with a 77” reach. Arlovski’s last fight was 119 days ago on September 5, 2015, where he defeated Frank Mir by a 3 round decision. He is undefeated since his UFC return, going 4-0. His biggest win in those 4 fights was a shocking 1st round KO of Travis Browne, who was said to have earned a title shot with a win against Arlovski. Arlovski is a former UFC Heavyweight champion, as he defeated Tim Sylvia by submission at UFC 51, YES!, UFC 51 in 2005!
Keys to Victory: As in most heavyweight fights, both fighters possess that one punch knockout power that can end a fight just like that! Arlovski has more than double the amount of fights of Miocic, and has been fighting professionally since Miocic was 18 years old! Arlovski has the experience, but Miocic has also fought some pretty experienced fighters. The winner of this fight, in all likelihood, should get the next title shot. One key thing to remember is despite the fact that Arlovski is on a 4 fight win streak, before he went on that streak, he was on a 4 fight losing streak. The one key thing to remember about Miocic is the fact that he is coming into this fight off 2 wars and what long term damage has it caused? We’ve all seen a totally different fighter in Junior Dos Santos after his wars with Cain Velasquez, is his previous fights going to change his fighting style?
(C) Robbie Lawler (26-10) -110 vs #4 Carlos Condit (30-8) -110 / Welterweight Title Bout
Over 4 ½ Rounds (-120)
Under 4 ½ Rounds (+100)
Robbie Lawler - a 33 year old southpaw fighter who stands at 5’11” with a 74” reach. Lawler’s last fight was 175 days ago on July 11, 2015, where he defeated Rory MacDonald in the 5th round by TKO. He has won 7 of his last 8 fights since his return back to the UFC, since departing after his submission loss to Evan Tanner at UFC 50 back in 2004. As the betting favorite based on the closing odds, Robbie Lawler is 7-2 +4.00 Units.
Carlos Condit - a 31 year old orthodox fighter who stands at 6’2” with a 75” reach. Condit’s last fight was 217 days ago on May 30, 2015, where he defeated Thiago Alves by a 2 round TKO. This is Condit’s only fight since his return from his year layoff from his surgically repaired knee. Condit has faced the who’s who in the welterweight division, with the likes of Georges St. Pierre, Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, Johny Hendriks, and the list goes on. As the betting favorite based on the closing odds, Carlos Condit is 6-1 +4.20 Units.
Keys to Victory: Robbie Lawler has a lot of heart, the more he gets hurt, the more dangerous he becomes. I am a Carlos Condit fan and I enjoy watching his fighting style, but I wish Condit took one more fight before this title fight because of his long layoff. However, I think the gameplan in this fight for Condit should be to take this fight to the mat and work for a submission. 5 of Lawler’s 10 losses have come by submission and 13 of Condit’s 30 wins have come by submission. For Lawler, the gameplan will be to strike his way to victory. It seems as though he has just been winging it in the octagon, trading punches and outlasting his opponents as they gas. Condit has shown to have good cardio and his submission game is very dangerous. He has an awkward but very effective striking style that Lawler hasn’t seen yet. We should be in for a great title fight and possibly another UFC title change.
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