Wisconsin Badgers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview & Free Pick

College Football Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 5, 2015
Where: AT&T Stadium In Arlington, Texas
Televised: ABC

Odds:  The Crimson Tide opened up at favorites of 10 and it has been bet up slightly to 10.5. The OU line opened at 55.5 and has been bet down to 50.5.

The Wisconsin Badgers made it to the Big 10 Title game last year, but were then throttled 59-0 by Ohio State, which went on to be national champs. The Badgers have just 11 starters back this year, must replace a first round RB and have a new coach coming in, but still they are the favorites to win the West. Defensively the Badgers were very tough last year as they allowed just 20.8 ppg overall and just 17.9 ppg in Big 10 play, despite the fact that they returned just 3 starters. This year they have 6 starters back and look to be very solid up front and in the LB corps, while the secondary should be outstanding with 3 of 4 starters back and 3 of the 4 in the secondary are seniors. That secondary rates as 2nd best in the Big 10 and 14th in the nation. This will again be a very solid defense and will have to carry the team till the offense comes around. Joel Stave will be the QB and has really been inconsistent in his career so far. The Badgers do lose RB Melvin Gordon, who ran for 2587 yards and 29 TDs last year, but Wisconsin seems to have a plug and play system when it comes to RBs and Corey Clement did run for 949 yards (6.5 ypc) and 9 TDs last year. Even without Gordon this team still has the 2nd rated RB corps in the league and 11th in the nation. Clement will be running behind the 3rd rated OL in the league as the Badgers seem to always put a solid line on the field. Leading receiver Alex Erickson is back, but not a lot of depth at that position. This will be a very formidable team once again.

The Alabama Crimson Tide made it to the playoffs last year and were pretty big favorites in their game vs Ohio State, but their defense didn’t play well at all in that game and they ended up losing a 42-35 thriller. The defense was one of the best in the nation during the regular season last year and will again be one of the best in the nation as Nick Saban has 27 lettermen, including 7 starters back on that side of the ball. He also had good success in recruiting as he brought in the #4 & #% rated DB’s and the #9 rated DL that came out of HS last year. This is a loaded team on defense and they will have to step up until their offense catches up. That offense put up 36.9 ppg last year by returns just 3 starts this year. At QB it looks as if Jake Coker will take over for the departed Blake Sims. He is a senior and has had some experience in this offense, so the tide are expecting big things from him. They do return their top RB in Derrick Henry, but this RB corps isn’t as deep as in years past and the WR corps took some hits as they lose their top 3 from last year, including Amari Cooper, who grabbed 124 balls for1727 yards last year. They have some talent coming in in Calvin Ridley, who is the #2 WR recruit, plus they also have the 15th best recruit coming in as well. The WR corps is down as well, but the OL is a strength and rates as one of the best in the Nation. This team will again be a player in the hunt for the National Title, but their offense needs to gel pretty quickly.

Let’s see. Both of these teams lost a lot on offense from last year, while both teams will be fielding very strong defenses. Hmmm, which way will I suggest you go? Yes the Under. Both these teams will have to rely on their defenses this year, especially early in the year until their offenses catch up. Also I really look for both teams to run the ball a lot in this game. That is the way the Badgers operate anyway and I look for Alabama to do the same. That will chew clock. This should be a tight low scoring ballgame, so I will say to take the Under here.   

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Monday Baseball Preview & Pick

MLB Preview: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 7:10 PM ET, Monday, August 31, 2015
Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
Televised: ESPN

Odds: Boston opened as a favorite of -125 and it has been bet down to them being favored at -115. The OU line currently stands at 9 with juice to the Over (-115)

The pitching matchup for this game pits Ivan Nova of the Yankees against Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox.  

Ivan Nova has spent much time on the DL this year and as a result he has just 11 starts. He has struggled for the most part, going just 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA overall, but he has pitched better on the road where he is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA. He also doesn’t have good numbers vs the Sox, going just 3-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 10 appearances (9 Starts) vs them. At Fenway he is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 6 app (5 starts).

Eduardo Rodriguez is in his first year in the Majors and has really been mediocre at best as he is 7-5 with a 4.39 ERA in 16 starts. At home he has gone 4-2 but with a 4.44 ERA. He has pitched well s the Yankees this year, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 2 starts.

Important Stats: On the road this year the Yankees have hit .248 overall, including .240 vs righties, while scoring 4.85 rpg. Their pitching has not been so great on the road, where they have a 4.10 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The Red Sox have been a good offensive team at home, hitting .288 overall and .289 vs righties, while putting up a very healthy 5.31 rpg. Pitching has not been so good for them at Fenway as they have a 4.51 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP here for the year.   

The Over has gone 9-1-1 in the Sox last 11 home games vs righties and the Over is also 9-2 when the Yanks take to the road vs a team with a losing record. Yup I’m going over the total here. The Yanks offense really came alive again after putting up 38 runs in their 3 game series vs the Braves. On Sunday they scored 20 runs and on Friday they put up 15 runs and that is in a park that is not as hitter friendly as Fenway is. The Boston offense has been vs good at home, where they average 5.32 rpg, plus the Sox have had good success vs Nova in this career, as he has a 5.05 ERA vs them and a 4.51 ERA in this park. Eduardo Rodriquez has a winning record ay home, but with a high 4.44 ERA. His home starts have averaged 11.78 rpg on the year. Both offenses are dealing it right now and will face very suspect pitching, which should put this game easily into double digits.

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Sunday Night Football Arizona Cardinals vs Oakland Raiders Preview & Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: Arizona Cardinals vs Oakland Raiders

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Sunday, August 30, 2015
Where: O.Co Coliseum in Oakland, California
Televised: NBC

Odds: The Raiders opened as 1.5 favorites, but the game has now been bet down to a PK. The OU line is at 40 in most shops.

The Arizona Cardinals are not having a god preseason so far as they lost at home by 15 to Kansas city and then at home by 3 points to San Diego. Even though they have allowed 26 ppg in the two games, it really hasn’t been the fault of the defense as they has allowed just 313 ypg so far. They have been particularly solid vs the run, allowing just 94.5 ypg so far. Defense is the strength of this team and probably will be for most of the year. The Offense has looked good with Palmer in there as he has hit 7 of 11 passes for 165 yards and a TD in his 2 games, but once he is out of there this offense has struggled. Logan Thomas, Drew Stanton and Philip Sims are just not capable backups for Palmer and should he go down again then this team will be in trouble. He will get more time in this game, but I’m sure the staff would at least like to see improvements from Stanton and Thomas.

Oakland has gone 1-1 so far in the Preseason as they beat St Louis 18-3 at home and the lost at Minnesota 20-12. This is a team that will struggle on offense, no matter who is at QB for them. It looks like it will be Carr and the running game has been solid, but he just has no weapons to get the ball to through the air. The Passing game has put up just 192 ypg through the air, while the ground attack has churned out 111 ypg. Going to be very hard for this team to score a lot of points this year. The defense has been very good in the preseason for the Raiders as they have allowed just 272.5 ypg so far, including just 186 ypg through the air. The Raiders just may have to rely on their defense this year until the offense comes around.

Arizona will be okay on offense this year when Palmer is in there and he will get more time in this one, but once he is out of there then this offense will struggle. The Raider has really struggled on offense in the preseason and I can’t see that changing here. Arizona WQB’s have combined for a 67.6% QBR, while Raider QBs have combined for a 67.3% QBR. These two offenses just can’t move the ball at all when the backups are in there and I don’t see them being able to do that tonight. The defense have looked solid and that should keep the scoring down in this one.

Take the Under 40 in this one.  

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ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview & Free Pick

MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:05 PM ET, Sunday, August 30, 2015
Where: Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles, California
Televised: ESPN

Odds: The Cubs opened as favorites of -115 and it has been bet up slightly to -118. The OU line currently sits at 6.5 with juice to the Over (-120)

The pitching matchup for this game has Jake Arrieta of the Cubs facing off with Alex Wood of the Dodgers.

Jake Arietta has been the ace of this staff as he comes in with a 16-6 record and a 2.22 ERA. Even more impressive is his last 6 starts where he is 6-0 with an 0.91 ERA. On the road this year he has gone 10-1 with a 1.94 ERA, which is also very impressive. Jake has faced the Dodgers twice in his career and hasn’t had good success, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in those starts.

Alex wood comes into this game with a 9-8 record and a 3.70 ERA overall for the year. Since he was traded to the Dodgers he has gone 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA in 5 starts, while at Chavez Ravine he is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in 1 start as a dodgers. In his career he has gone 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 5 appearances (3 starts) in this park. Alex is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 4 games ( 1 start) vs the Cubs in his career.

Important Stats: On the road this year the Cubs and have hit just .242 overal, including the same .242 vs righties, while scoring 4.37 rpg away from home. Their pitching has been decent on the road, with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The Dodgers are a struggling offensive team overall, but they have hit .255 at home, including .256 vs righties and they have scored 4.4 rpg at home. The pitching has been very good at home as they have a 3.17 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP at Chavez Ravine for the year.

The Cubs are locked in a battle for the 2nd wildcard spot, while the Dodgers seem to be fading a bit. Yes they are locked in a battle for the NL West, but they just are not playing all that well and I can’t see that changing in this game. Jake Arrieta is on a roll as he is 6-0 with an 091 ERA in his last 6 starts and he has a very strong 10-1 record with a 1.94 ERA on the road. He has poor numbers in 2 starts vs the Dodgers, but hasn’t faced them since 2013. Alex wood has not been sharp for the Dodgers so far and I don’t expect him to have a good game vs a Chicago team that just looks more focused. The Cubs are 12-1 in Arrieta’s road starts and 11-3 in his night starts and those are hard numbers to buck, especially vs an LA team that can’t score right now.

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MLB Baseball Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Preview & Free Pick

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 1:10 PM ET, Sunday, August 30, 2015
Where: Citi Field in New York
Televised: TBS

Odds: The Line opened up at New York as a favorite of -180 and has been bet down slightly to -175. The OU line currently stands at 7.5 with juice on the under (-120)

The pitching matchup for this game has Wade Miley of the Red Sox taking on Noah Syndergaard of the Mets.

Wade Miley has not been great in his first year in Boston as he has gone 10-10 with a 4.51 ERA overall for the year and he is coming off a bad outing vs the White Sox, in which he allowed 5 ERs on 13 hits in 6.2 innings. That start was on the road and he is now 4-6 with a 4.56 ERA away from home. Wade has just 3 career starts vs the Mets and he is 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA in those starts.

Noah Syndergaard has turned into one of the better starters on this New York staff and comes into this game with an 8-6 record and a 3.19 ERA overall. At home he has been exceptional, going 7-1 with a 1.82 ERA and that compares to going 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA on the road and h is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in 4 day starts. He has not faced the Red Sox in his career.

Important Stats: On the road this year the Red Sox have hit just .234 overall, including .229 vs righties, while scoring 3.76 rpg. Their pitching has not been god on the road at all, where they have a 4.60 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The Mets at home have hit .232 overall, but they have struggled vs lefties, hitting just .215 off of them at home. They have scored 4.09 rpg at home. Their pitch has been very good at Citi Field, where they have a 2.99 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.  

The Mets have been involved in many high scoring games of late, but that came to an end Saturday afternoon when they lost to Boston 3-1. I expect another low scoring game here. Wade Miley has not been good on the road this year, but vs the Mets he doesn’t really have to be great as they have hit just .219 vs southpaws at home. The Sox have hit righties at just .229 on the road and they wil face a very tough on in Noah Syndergaard, who is 7-1 with a 1.82 ERA at home. His home starts have gone 7-2 to the Under with just 6.67 rpg being scored. Both offenses will struggle to score in this one.

Take the Under 7.5 here.

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Minnesota Vikings 2015 Preview w/ Win Total Bet

Minnesota Vikings 2015 Preview w/ Win Total Bet

By: Jonathan Young (Follow me on Twitter @JonoYoungP4P)

As soon as this ‘Win Total’ was released I automatically thought VALUE. Last season, Mike Zimmer led the Vikings to a 7-9 campaign as they improved week by week. QB Teddy Bridgewater really had no help on the offensive side of the ball but still managed to execute enough plays to win games. The return of Adrian Petersen and the addition of WR Mike Wallace are two massive offensive weapons that will in turn open up some running lanes for Bridgewater himself.

Defensively, Zimmer took over when this group ranked worst in football in 2013. Last year's group shaved their points allowed by 8.6 points per game to rank 11^th.  Now they have stars at all three phases of their defense and if they improve they could break into the Top 10 in the NFL. Sharif Floyd and Everson Griffen are stand outs on their Line, Chad Greenway is one of the most exciting LB in football, and Harrison Smith is one of the best safeties in the league.

The Vikings will really need to improve on their divisional play as they’ve gone 3-8-1 in the NFC North over the past two seasons. The Bears are susceptible, ushering in a new era of their own under John Fox, and the Vikings lost close ones to the Lions and Packers last year. Going 3-3 is certainly in reach of this Viking team.

BEST BET - Minnesota Vikings OVER 7 Wins (-150)

GL

Jonathan Young

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Seattle Seahawks vs San Diego Chargers NFL Preseason Preview & Free Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs San Diego Chargers

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, August 29, 2015
Where: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego California
Televised: CBS

Odds: Chargers opened up as 1.5 point favorites, but money has come in on the Seahawks and they are now listed as 2.5 point favorites. The OU line was at 42.5, but has been bet down to 41.5.

The Seahawks started their preseason with a 2 point loss at home to the Broncos and then went on the road and lost 14-13 to the Chiefs. The Denver game was truly horrible for them as they were outgained by 175 yards in the contest, despite losing bay just 2 points. last week they played much better in the 1 point loss to the chiefs as they were outgained but just 11 yards in the game. A question coming into this year would be how well the defense plays now that DC Dan Quinn is gone and so far it has been mixed results as they allowed Denver 356 yards of total offense, but were stronger the last week, allowing the Chiefs just 238 yards of offense. Overall i feel the defense will be very good, just like it has the last few years. It just may take them a few games to get there. The Offense has not looked good at all so far as they have averaged just 204 ypg and 16.5 ppg so far. They are not a powerful offense by nature, but still that is horrible for them and a big reason they are 0-2 in the preseason. The offense needs to step it up and show it can do something in this game. 

The Chargers have had a nice preseason so far as they are 2-0, which includes a 17-7 home win over Dallas and then a 22-19 road win over Arizona. Last weeks win was very impressive, considering both Rivers and Gordon sat the game out. The defense for San Diego has looked good in both games and so far have allowed just 265 ypg and 13 ppg. It looks like tyhis defense will be a surprise this year as they have talent in the starting lineup and also have some very good depth. the defense will need to play good this year as the offense is not as strong as it once was. Actually part of that is the play calling as Mccoy employs a conservative grind it out kind of offensive game plan. This offense will not take a lot of chances, especially knowing they have a solid defense behind them. The Ground attack should be improved which will also help them just keep the chains moving and the clock running.   

I get why the OU lines are higher in the 3rd preseason game because it is the closest to a regular season game that you will get, but I can't see why this OU line is in the 40s at all. These two teams have showed nothing offensively yet and i don't see that changing vs a couple of defenses that have the ability to lock it down. Both offenses are run oriented and that really keeps the clock moving. With the way both teams are playing right now I just can't see this game getting into the upper 30s, let alone the 40s. 

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers NFL Preview & Free Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, August 29, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin 

Televised: Locally

Odds: The Green Bay Packers opened as 3, but money has come in heavily on the Eagles and now they are 5 points favorites for this one. The OU line has come down a little as it opened at 49 and is down to 47.5 in most shops. 

The Eagles are 2-0 in the preseason so far and neither game has been close as they beat the Colts by 23 and the Ravens by 26. The offense has looked better that ever so far as they have scored 76 points in the 2 games on 444 ypg. Chip Kelly has this offense going and they will again be hard to stop in the regular season. Matt Barkley looked very good in week one, while it was Mark Sanchez that had the better game last week. This offense isn't all about the pass as they have run for 182.5 ypg so far and last week vs the Ravens they had 238 yards rushing in the game. Scary to think how good this offense will be with Demarco in there for the whole game. The defense has allowed just 27 total points through the two games and this team with solid defensive play will also e a scary thought for the rest of the NFL. 

The Packers have gone 1-1 in the preseason so far, but they may have been dealt the most severe blow of all the teams when they lost Jordy Nelson for the year last week in their loss to Pittsburgh. Jordy is one of the best receivers in the league and Rodgers will miss him. They still do have Randall Cobb, who can put up big numbers, but getting someone to fill the shoes of Nelson will not be easy. Luckily for Green Bay that they still have a couple of games to work someone into that roll and that may be Davante Adams, who caught 66 balls for 446 yards last year. 3rd round pick Ty Montgomery will also have plenty of ball thrown his way. They Packers and Rodgers still feel that they have enough weapons to make this offense go. The defense has played well so far, allowing just 261.5 ypg and 17 ppg, but they will really be up against it in this game.

Gotta feel that this game will see many points. I know that Nelson is out and that's probably a reason for the OU line to come down a bit, but I feel that the absence of Nelson will force the Packers to take to the aerial game even more as they have to develop that 2nd WR. They will get a lot of chances to run their offense as the Eagles uptempo game affrds other teams more chances to get the ball. The Eagle offense has look unstoppable so far and now we should see most of the 1st team into the second half. They will get their points, while I will also be expecting a god amount of points from the Packers. I like shootouts and this one looks like it has the makings of one.   

I am going Over the total of 47.5 here. 

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Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Preseason Odds & Free Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 7:00 PM ET, Saturday, August 29, 2015
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas
Televised: Locally

Odds: The Cowboys opened up as 3 point favorites, but money has come in on the Vikings a Dallas now is just a 1 point favorite at most shops. The OU line has come down from 42.5 to as much as 41.5 in some spots.

The Minnesota Vikings have looked solid in the preseason so far as they currently stand at 3-0. This will be their first true road game in the Preseason, as their win over Pittsburgh was at the Hall of Fame game. Defense, defense and more defense. That is what we have seen from the Vikings in the preseason so far as they have allowed just 266 ypg and 10.3 ppg in their 3 games thus far. I knew this defense was going to be good this year, but they really have showed that they just may be a top 5 unit. They are getting contributions from all over and have shown some solid depth as well. That will be key for them this year, as having a good defense will take the pressure off of Bridgewater and allow him to continue to grow. Also helping take the pressure off of him will be a healthy and pissed off Adrian Petersen. The Offense won’t need to be all that strong for them to win games, but it will be good enough to complement that strong defense. I had them pegged for 10 wins this year and they just might hit it.

The Cowboys come in at 0-2 in the preseason so far, with the losses coming at Sa Diego and San Francisco. The Cowboy offense has been horrid in the early goings as they has scored just 13 points in the two games while averaging just 247.5 ypg of total offense.  I felt this offense would suffer some because of the lack of a running game and that has happened. It has meant that their QBs will have to make plays and they just can’t. The ground attack was the best in the league last year, but has averaged just 86 ypg so far, after averaging 143 ypg last year. Romo has been asked to make plays in the past and he just hasn’t been able. With no running game this offense is in trouble. Getting rid of Murray was a mistake. The defense has been good in the early going so far, allowing just 202 ypg, but they have allowed 20 ppg so far. Still this defense may have to carry them till the offense comes around.

The offense for Dallas has shown nothing at all in the preseason so far and I just can’t see them getting it turned around in this one vs a very stout Minnesota defense. Dallas needs a running game and they don’t have it now that Murray has moved on to Philadelphia. Without a good ground attack Tomy Romo will need to step up and make plays, which is something he hasn’t been able to do in the past. Even though he will get much more time in this one, I just don’t see the Dallas offense putting up many points. On the other side we have a very average Minnesota going up against a Dallas defense that has allowed just 202 ypg thus far. You see where I’m heading here. The OU line is usually higher in week 3 of the preseason because teams play their starters a bit more, but even if the starters played the whole game during the regular season I wouldn’t expect more than 35 points here. This OU line is way to high IMO.

Take the Under 42 in this one.  

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Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Odds & Free Pick

NFL Preseason Preview: Detroit Lions & Jacksonville Jaguars

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, August 28, 2015
Where: EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Televised: CBS

Odds: The Line opened up as Jacksonville being a 1 point favorite and has been bet up slightly as they are now 2 point favorites in most shops. Money has come in on the Under as it has been bet down from 41.5 to 41.

The Detroit Lions come in at 1-1 in the preseason so far, winning their home game vs the Jets (23-3), while losing on the road last week to Washington 21-17. In their home game they looked very good in outgaining the Jets by 305 yards, putting up 428 yards and 26 FDs in the game. The Problem though was the fact that they scored just 23 points. Last week their offense didn't look great as they put up just 241 yards of total offense and 17 points. That was vs what should be a bad Washington defense this year. Matthew Stafford hasn't played much, but has gone 8-10 for 135 yards and a TD so far and he should get more time as teams tend to play their starters more in the 3rd game. Behind him is Dan Orlovsky and he didn't have a good game vs the Jets, but did last week vs Washington, hitting 13 of 17 passes for 118 yards and 2 TDs.  All Detroit's starters should play more in this one.

The Jaguars have also gone 1-1 in the preseason, winning their home game 23-21 over Pittsburgh, while losing on the road last week by a 22-12 score vs the Giants. Not a lot is expected of Jacksonville this year, but they should be a bit more competitive in their games. Their offense will still be pretty weak, but that is nothing new as they have averaged 16 ppg or less in each of their last 4 years. It should be better than that with Bortles now having a year under his belt and with the addition of Julius Thomas at TE. He shouldn't play in this game as he suffered a fracture in his hand, but will be ready for opening day. Still the have work to do on offense as they put up 290 ypg last year and just 284.5 ypg in 2 preseason games this year. The Defense for the Jags has played good in the preseason, allowing just 332 yards of total offense, compared to allowing 371 ypg last year.  

OU Lines are a bit higher in week 3 of the preseason and I feel this one is a bit to high, as just one team has a shot at scoring many points. The Jags offense should be improved this year, but it will still be bad and it has shown that in the  preseason, putting up just 284 ypg worth of offense, while the Lions have allowed just 232 ypg on defense. Detroit on offense has looked solid, but hasn't scored a bunch, while the Jags defense has looked good, plus the Grass at everBank Field should slow Detroit's offense down even more. This game will pit a mediocre offense vs a good defense and a bad offense vs a defense that looks like it is picking up where it left off last year when it led the league. Add is all up, plus with the game being on grass and we should get no more than 35 points in this one.  

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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals Betting Odds & Free Pick

MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 2:10 PM ET, Thursday, August 27, 2015
Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Televised: MLB Network

Odds: The Line opened up at Kansas City -140, but has been bet down slightly to Kansas City -135. The OU Line currently stands at 8, with juice to the Over (-115).

The pitching matchup for this game pits Chris Tillman of the Orioles vs Yordano Ventura of the Royals.

The last few years Chris Tillman has outpitched his advanced metrics, but this year it seems to have caught up to him. He is 9-8 on the year, but with a high 4.51 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has pitched better of late as he is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in his last 4 starts. On the road this year he has gone 4-2 with a 5.05 ERA. Chris does not have good numbers vs the Royals in his career as he is just 2-2 with a 6.21 ERA in 5 starts vs them.  

Yordano Ventura also has a winning record at 8-7, but just like Tillman he has a high ERA, which currently stands at 4.64. He comes at 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA in his last 5 starts, so he is pitching a bit better. At home this year he has gone 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA. In 2 career starts vs the Orioles he is 1-1 with a 1.26 ERA.

Important Stats: On the road this year the Orioles have hit .241 overall and .238 vs righties, while scoring 3.9 rpg. Their pitching has not been great away from home, with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The Royals have hit a solid .273 at home, including .279 vs righties, while putting up 4.58 rpg. Their ERA has been solid at home at 3.28, with a WHIP of 1.20.

Chris Tillman’s numbers are starting to catch up with him as he has not been good at all this year as he has a 4.51 ERA overall, including a 5.05 ERA on the road, despite the fact that he is 4-2 on the road this year. Oh yeah he also has a 7.31 ERA in 7 day starts this year5 and those games have averaged 11.43 rpg. Ventura has pitched well since being called back up, but still has a 4.23 ERA overall and a 4.61 ERA in day starts. His 9 day starts this year have averaged 9.11 rpg. The Royals offense has been strong, especially at home, while the O’s offense woke up last night and I expect more of the same from them in this one.

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ESPN Wednesday Baseball Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Preview & Free Pick

MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

When: 10:15 PM ET, Wednesday, August 25, 2015
Where: AT&T Park in San Francisco, California
Televised: ESPN

Odds:  The game opened with San Francisco favored at -112 and it has pretty much stayed that way with San Fran favored at -113. The OU line has been set 7 with juice on the Over (-120).

The pitching matchup for this game has Kyle Hendricks squaring off against Jake Peavy.

Kyle Hendricks has not been spectacular for the Cubs but he has been solid as he comes in with a 6-5 record and a 4.03 ERA. He has struggled with his ERA of late, posting a 5.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, but he is 2-0 in those starts. On the road this year he is 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He has faced the Giants once and it was this year. In that game he got the win 8-6 and allowed 3 ERs in just 5.1 innings.

Jake Peavy has not pitched well at all for the Giants as he is 3-6 with a 4.35 ERA in 11 starts. In his last 5 starts he is just 1-2, but has pitched better with a 3.77 ERA. August has been a decent month for him in his career as he is 31-24 with a 3.07 ERA in 69 career starts during this month. Against the Cubs he is 8-6 with a 2.81 ERA in 17 career starts, but just 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last 4 starts vs them.

The Cubs have not hit really well on the road as they have averaged just .247 overall, including just .244 vs righties, but they have scored well on the road, averaging 4.53 rpg. Their pitching has been decent on the road as they have a 3.51 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP away from home.

The Giants offense has hit really well at home, where they have a .265 average overall, including .261 vs righties. Scoring has been a slight problem for them at home, where they have averaged just 3.97 rpg. Pitching has not been an issue at home as they have a 3.08 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP at AT&T Park this year.

The Cubs offense is on fire right now as they come in having averaged 7 rpg in their last 8 games. I can't see their offense getting slowed down in this one vs Jake Peavy, who has struggled recently, with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has not pitched well lately and also has a 4.13 ERA in 5 home starts this year. Those starts have been high scoring as his home starts have averaged 9.8 rpg.

Kyle Hendricks has also struggled recently as he has a 7.24 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while on the road he has posted a 4.44 ERA. Kyle's last 5 starts have averaged a very nice 11 rpg. The Giants have averaged just 3.8 rpg in their last 10 game, but I fel they can get at least 4 here, while the Cubs will also post that much. 

Take the Over 7 in this game.  

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NFL Best & Worst ATS & Best Over/ Under Teams

NFL Best & Worst ATS & Best Over/ Under Teams

Written By David Hess (Follow me on Twitter @DavidHess311)

Football is almost here and I thought it would be a good time to recap some spread stats from last year. In this blog we will take a look at the Top 5 and Worst 5 NFL teams against the spread from last year, and also will look at the top over and top under teams from last year.

Oddly enough the top 3 teams ATS last year were all in the NFC West as the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers all had 11-5 ATS marks last year. Very odd that the top three teams were from the same division. One this s that I wouldn't expect to see San Francisco on this list this year.

Checking in at number 4 are both the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm not sure the Broncos will be on this list this as they are a bit down, but Cincinnati could be a surprise team this year and just might land on it again.

Let's start the bottom 5 with a three way tie between Tampa Bay, Detroit and Cleveland, who were all 6-10 ATS. I really can't see Detroit being near the bottom again and Tampa may be a bit more competitive, which should allow them to cover some more spreads, but Cleveland is bad, especially on offense and I just can't see them see them scoring enough points to cover many of the spreads that they will be big dogs in.

At 29th is Jacksonville, who was 5-10-1 ATS and while they are improved, they should have a rough year ATS again. At 30th is Washington, who went 5-11 ATS, while Chicago was next at 4-11-1 and bringing up the rear was Houston at 4-12 ATS. Chicago and Washington could end up on this list again, but I don't see Houston being here again as they are an improved team that should be able to cover more spreads.


On to Totals where the top Over teams in the league were Chicago and Minnesota, who were both 12-4 to the over last year. Minnesota will be good on offense, but their defense could be one of the best, so I don't expect them to be in the top 5 here. Chicago will be improved on offense and still bad on defense and they should again be on this list.

At number 3 is Denver, who was 11-5 to the Over last year, but their offense is down this year and their play calling will be a bit more conservative, so I wouldn't look for them to be in a ton of high scoring games this year. At number 4 was Cincinnati, who went 10-5-1 to the Over, while at number 5 was Buffalo, at 10-6 to the Over. Both should have solid defenses, so I'm not sure they will be on this list this year.

The best Under team was Carolina at 5-11 to the Under and I have a feeling they will be on this list again as their offense is still week, while their defense is solid again. Next is Seattle at 6-10-0 to the Under. Not sure here as they are improved on offense, while their defense could be down a tick with the loss of DC Dan Quinn.

New Orleans was also at 6-10 to the Under last year, but I don't expect that again as their offense will be explosive, while their defense will still struggle. Next is both San Diego and Kansas City, who were at 7-9 to the Under a year ago and with both teams style of play I can see them as under teams once again.

There you have it. The best and worst teams against the spread, along with the best Over and Under teams as well. Soon the games will begin and I for one just cannot wait.

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2015 MLB Power Rankings - Week 21

2015 MLB Power Rankings – Week 21

By: Bankerz Bets (Follow me on Twitter @Bankerz_Bets)

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