Baylor Bears (7-0 SU, 4-2-0 ATS, 5-2-0 OU) vs Kansas State Wildcats (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3-0 OU)
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 5, 2015
Where: Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Lines: Baylor -17
Total: 67.5
The first playoff poll came out this week and once again Baylor is on the outside looking in, even though they are undefeated and Notre Dame and Alabama both have one loss. Still that isn't the worst thing that has happened to Baylor this week as they have now lost QB Seth Russell for the season. Jarrett Stidham will step in and he has looked great in mop up duties, but now he will be getting his first start on the year, in Manhattan and vs a HOF coach. That is not a good combination. Last week Baylor did struggle some on offense once Russell was out of there and they were able to put up just 45 points in the game, which is the first time all year that they have failed to score at least 56 points in a game. Stidham will have the advantage of having a few extra days to prepare for this game. Baylor hasn't played that tough a schedule yet, but after this one it gets brutal as they have a home game vs Oklahoma and BB road games vs Oklahoma State and TCU on deck, before closing out at home vs Texas. If they get through that gauntlet of games with a backup QB then you can bet they will jump over both Notre Dame and Alabama.
Kansas State has not had a good season so far as they are 3-4 on the year and have been outscored 78-9 in their last 2 games. They are 0-4 in the Big 12, but the rest of their schedule is rather manageable. Prior to their last two games they did play very well in their losses, losing by just 2 points at Oklahoma State and by just 7 points at home to TCU. Their offense was also very good, putting up 79 points in the two games, unfortunately they allowed 88 points in the two games as well. Kansas has struggled on both sides of the ball this year as they are 121st in total offense and 84th in total defense, but still this is the kind of game they can very well get up for and may also catch a Baylor team that just may be looking ahead to their gauntlet.
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Pick: Under 67.5
Ok having said all that I will look at the Under in his game. The Baylor offense will be much more run oriented this week and Kansas State has a solid run defense that ranks 47th in the land and they allow just 4.1 ypc on the year so far. That should chew some clock. For Kansas State, they have scored just 9 points total in their last two games and that should negate the fact that Baylor's defense has been average at best this year. Kansas State will look to shorten the game the game with their rushing attack. I also look for Baylor to slow the game down some should they get out to a big lead. They have a massive three games coming up and they know they won't have to score a ton here to get the win. I see around 60 points at best here.
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