Northwestern Wildcats (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6-0 OU) vs Wisconsin Badgers (8-2 SU, 4-6-0 ATS, 4-6-0 OU)
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 21, 2015
Where: Camp Randall Stadium in Madison Wisconsin
Lines: Wisconsin -10
Total: 40
The Northwestern Wildcats have been the surprise of the Big 10 thus far as they come in at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the conference after taking out Purdue 21-14 this past week. The Wisconsin Badgers had the week off and prior to their bye they beat Maryland 31-24 on the road. Wisconsin is now 5-1 in the Big 10. Both Wisconsin and Northwestern are chasing Iowa in the Big 10 West.
Justin Jackson’s TD Lifts Wildcats Over Boilermakers
The Wildcats weren’t really supposed to be in a close game vs Purdue this past weekend, but that’s exactly what happened as they just couldn’t shake the pesky Boilermakers. The game was tied at 14 until Justin Jackson scored on a two-yard run with just over 10 minutes left in the game. That was the game winner. Jackson had 116 yards rushing in the game and that lone TD, while Warren Long had the other two TDs for the Cats.
The Wildcats only outgained the Boliermakers by just 22 yards in the game and just had a lot of trouble sustaining much offense vs a defense that ranked 101st overall and 107th in points allowed. Not a pretty offensive display for Northwestern, but really that is the way it has been this year for the Wildcats as they come in ranked 111th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense (21.1 ppg) Defense is where this team’s bread is buttered as they come in ranked 18th in yards allowed (320.4 ypg) and 12th in points allowed 17.6 ppg.
Badgers Survive A Scare From Maryland
The Wisconsin Badgers are just a game behind Iowa in the Big 10 West and two weeks ago they took on a weak Maryland squad that had just two wins on the year coming in. Maryland fought hard in the game and it was tied at the half, before Wisconsin outscored them 14-7 in the 2nd half. Joel Stave had just 20 yards passing at the half, but had a much better second half as he finished with 188 yards and 1 TD for the game. Stave has now thrown 10 TD passes on the year, but he has 8 INTs as well.
Still it has been the passing game that has led this team a bit more than the power running game that they are used to in these parts. The passing game ranks 44th in the nation, which the running game is 89th. Wisconsin was able to must just 104 yards on the ground in the win over a Maryland squad that has allowed 160 ypg on the ground this year. Much like Northwestern, this isn’t an offensive team as their money is made on a defense that ranks 3rd in the nation in yards allowed (272 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (12.3 ppg).
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Pick: Wisconsin/ Northwestern Under 40
The OU line here should be around 42 and I expect this game to be played in the 30’s. Both teams are very conservative on offense and they can afford to be as they have top-notch defenses backing them up. The Badgers have allowed just 12.3 ppg overall, including just 5.0 ppg at home and the Wildcats have averaged just 16.3 ppg on the road. Northwestern has allowed 25.3 pg on the road and Wisconsin has scored 32 ppg at home, but I just can’t see them getting that much in this one, especially knowing that their defense should really stifle the Wildcats, so they won’t have to score a whole lot to win the game. This game has 20-13 written all over it.
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