BYU Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

College Football Friday Pick, Odds, and Prediction

BYU and UC are meeting for the first time on Friday night.  They’re both trying to avoid their third loss of the season.

College Football Friday Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Written by Mike “The Scientist” Singer (Follow me on Twitter @TheScientistSBC) 

Game Info

Date: Friday, October 16 
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Cougar Town, Utah
Network: ESPN

Odds: BYU Cougars -4.5 Over/Under 67 See the Latest Odds

 

Singer’s Rock (Star) Rating: 3/5*

BYU and UC are meeting for the first time on Friday night.  They’re both trying to avoid their third loss of the season.  For the Cougs, the is their 3rd straight game vs a team from the greatest conference in the world, The American (handled UConn and just got by ECU).  The Bearcats are looking to build off their last game, in which they pulled a small upset beating a Miami team having a down year.  Previous to beating the Hurricanes, they were having a down year of their own, although now they have every opportunity to make a run in the greatest race in the world, the one in the American Conference.

BYU

BYU's D in the 2nd half vs ECU really was unlike anything coach "Ford" Bronco Mendenhall had put together on the field before, with suspensions (players were late arriving at the team hotel on Friday night before the game along with improper Twitter postings, which at BYU carries a lifetime ban) and injuries plaguing the ball club.

However, at Monday's press conference, Ford Bronco said that basically everyone would be returning for the UC game: corners So. Jordan Preator, Fr. Michael Shelton (1 int), So. Micah Hannemann, Jr. (1 int), and LB Harvey Langi (2 Ints vs UCLA).  So. OL Ului Lapuaho(ankle) and star Fr. QB Tanner ManGum (hamstring) are probable, but definitely expected to play also as confirmed today by Jeff Call from thte Deseret News.

Harvey Langi will return tonight vs UC.
The Jr OLB & former RB has registered
2 ints and 2 sacks in only 3 games.

Ford Bronco believes that  DT Travis Tuiloma is the team's best defensive player and there was a shift last week vs ECU for the 20 plays he was in the game.  It was Tuiloma's first game back since suffering a knee injury in week one vs Nebraska.                

The BYU Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, SOS rank of 17. The BYU offense (27.7ppg & 408ypg, w/ 9 give aways.) runs through QB ManGum's ability to scramble and throw on the run. Thus far he's completing 62.5% of his throws, w/ 9 TDs and 5 picks.  

Algernon Brown leads the Cougs in rushing w/ 252 yds & 3TDs, but the thing that really makes this offense SO dynamic is it's core of basketball WRs who are racking up the stats off the court and on the field.  6'6" Sr WR Mitch Mathews is the leading w/ 30 grabs & 6TDs while #2 wideout, 6'5" Terenn Houk has 19 grabs and a score.  They both impose their size and strength upon smaller secondaries.  

As for the D, it's allowing 26.3ppg and 401ypg w/ 10INTs, 3 FR, and an impressive 16 sacks, led by Michael Wadsworth (44tcks), Manoa Pikula (29 tcks),  and Kai Nacua (27 tackles, 4INTs, 1pick6), Harvey Langi, and in the middle of it all, the big man, 300lb DT Tuiloma.

BYU Overall and Keys to Covering (spread)

BYU's offense is clicking on all cylinders, scoring 75 pts in the last two games, and assuming ManGum isn't gimpy with nagging hamstring injury, I expect them to continue scoring points against a soft Cinci D that's allowing almost 6ypp and has put almost NO pressure on the QB (6sacks) w/ 4 takeaways in 5gms.  This should allow ManGum to have time to find his big targets Mitch & Houk... sound like a detective show.

.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats are 3-2 this season & coming off of a bye week after beating Miami 2 weeks ago.  The UC O is putting up 39ppg and 586.8ypg,  yards per game and they have turned the ball over 15 times.

Hayden Moore and GunnerKiel are still competing for the starting job as Bearcats QB with neither being impressive enough to take it both turning the ball over 5 times. Tion Green leads UC in rushing with 383yds & 3TDs and Shaq Washington is their top WR w/ 34 grabs, along w/ #2 Max Morrison's 24 grabs. 

Gunnar Kiel thinks he's UC's #1 QB

The Cincinnati defense has been... not good. It's allowing 30.6ppg and 397.4ypg w/ only 2 INTs, 2 FR, and a meager 6 sacks. Eric Wilson (53 tcks), Zach Edward (28tcks) and Bryce Jenkinson (21) will need to step it up against this leathal BYU offense..

UC Overall and keys to not covering spread

Bearcats have some momentum heading into this matchup as they defeated a formidable Miami team, and are well rested after a bye week.  Tommy "Tubby" Tuberville is not saying who's going to start at QB.  There is a chance that this high octane O, averaging 39ppg, 11 on ground, 12 in the air could pose some problems for up until this point, a so-so BYU D. 

Against the Spread

BYU is 1-4 against the spread vs AAC, 3-7-1 following a gm that they didn't cover ATS, and 1-5 ATS in last 6gms in October. UC is 6-0-1 ATS following a gm that the covered ATS, 6-2-1 ATS post-win, and 1-6 ATS in last 7 non-conference gms.

OVER-OVERALL

Cincinnati has obvious holes on defense and turns the ball over far too often to win consistently, while BYU is getting alot of their defensive pieces back into place.  BYU will control the ball in this game and put alot of pressure on whomever Tubby decides to be his starting QB.  Could be a high scoring affair but I think BYU covers easily and holds UC in the 20s.

Prediction: BYU 34, Cincinnati 24

Singer’s Rock(star) pick: BYU -4.5

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