Wisconsin Badgers vs (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 OU) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 OU)
When: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, October 10, 2015
Where: Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska
Lines: Nebraska -1.5
Total: 48.5
This is a huge game for these teams as both have started out 0-1 in the Big 10 this year so far. Nebraska started with a loss to Illinois in the closing seconds, while Wisconsin was thoroughly outplayed on their own field in a very sluggish 10-6 loss to Iowa.
Wisconsin is 3-2 on the year, but still this offense is not playing well at all. The Badgers really have missed Melvin Gordon at RB as they have put up just 167.8 ypg rushing this year, compared to 320 ypg last year. A power run game has been the staple of the Badgers for year, but this year they have had to rely on the passing game of Joel Stave, which is not what you want to have to do. Joel really hasn’t been a good QB for the Badgers and while he has thrown 44 TDs in his career, he has also thrown 30 INTs. Not a good ratio at all. This year he has 7 TDs to 4 INTs. Again that is not a good ratio.
The Badgers do seem like a confused tea on offense as they really don’t have an identity of what kind of offense they are running. This is a power running team that is having to throw the ball more, which will make for a sputtering offense like the e they have. The Badgers put up just 17 and 6 points n their 2 losses and even in two of their wins vs Hawaii and Troy they were able to manage just 28 points in each game. They would have run right over those teams in previous years, but this year they just can’t.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have had some late game bad luck this year and it started in their opener vs BYU, when Tanner Magnum came in off the bench to hit a hail mary pass in the final seconds of the game, giving BYU the 33-28 win. Last week vs Illinois it wasn’t a hail mary, but Wes Lunt did hit Geronimo Allison for a 1 yd TD pass with just 10 seconds to go i the game, giving Illinois the 14-13 win. Now let’s add those two losses to the OT loss at Miami and you have a Nebraska team that is just a few plays away from being 5-0 and ranked in the top 10. Just heartbreaking losses for this team that is looking to turn things around with a new coaching staff and attitude.
Offensively the Cornhuskers have been very good as they have put up 474 ypg and 31.8 ppg on the year so far. The defense has been a different story, especially their late game defense. So far this year the Cornhuskers have allowed 12.8 ppg through the first 3 quarters, but in quarter #4 alone they have allowed 10.6 ppg. Prior to the season starting, defensive depth looked like it was going to be an issue for this team and so far it has been. The have been wearing down late in games.
Trends
Wisconsin Is:
- 5-0 ATS their last 5 games vs a losing team
- 20-7 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards
Nebraska is:
- 0-7 ATS at home vs a Big 10 opponents off a SU loss
- 1-4 ATS their last 6 Big 10 games
- 0-4 ATS in the last 4 in the series
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Free College Football Pick: [403] Wisconsin +1.5
I know I didn’t discuss it above, but one thing that the Badgers do have is an excellent defense that comes in allowing just 278 ypg and 9.6 ppg on the year. Granted they haven’t played the best of offenses this year, but still those are some solid numbers. Nebraska has played decent offensive teams and they have struggled so far, allowing 438 ypg and 24 ppg so far. Wisconsin gets the clear edge on defense in this game. I do look for them to run the ball a bit more here as that should really tire out the Nebraska defense that has already shown they will tire late. This game will be won in the 4th quarter and Wisconsin has allowed just 1.4 ppg in that quarter, while Nebraska has allowed 10.6 ppg in the final frame. Nebraska loses another game late.
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