Written by Mike “The Scientist” Singer (Follow me on Twitter @TheScientistSBC)
Penn St. Fr. RB Saquon Barkley (26) plays leap frog over Buffalo LB Nick Gilbo (43) during 4th Q on 9/12/15 at Beaver Stadium. Barkley finished the day with 115yds rushing and a TD. PSU won, 27-14.
Broadcast
Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
Game
Time: 8:00 pm
Venue:
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Network:
ABC
Spread OSU -16 O/U 47 See the Latest Odds
Ohio State -16 vs Penn State (Rock (Star) Rating: 5* out of 5*)
Penn State is 5-1 and which opponent do you think was
their best win… SDSU? Indiana? Rutgers? Buffalo? Army? Probably Indiana? Well,
anyways the 5 of them have a combined .429 winning percentage. Although, to be fair, OSU hasn’t really
played anyone yet either as their 5 wins have a combined win % of .457. Both teams offenses have struggled at times
with their defenses picking up the slack.
First half of the season is gone, and it’s time for the conference
pretenders to fade. If PSU were to pull
(an on paper) upset of the current #1 (on paper), then everyone would take
notice of this team real quick.
Keep winning. That’s all that matters for the defending
champs, apparently, in the eyes of the CFB poll voters. It really doesn’t matter that the Funkeyes,
sucked (compared to last year’s team) for most of the game against Maryland,
Indiana, Va.Tech, and NIU. Then throw in
a couple of boarderline FCS/FBS cake walks with Western Michigan and Hawaii,
and you have your 6-0 defending national champions. OSU really knows how to put a schedule
together, i.e. after PSU they got Rutgers and Minnesota at home before actually
being tested, on the road at Illinois and then Michigan, wrapped around MSU
game. It’s time to start dressing the
part…. And they
have all the pieces to put it together.
Nittany Lions
Oh how the Nittany Lions would love to not only pull
off the big road upset, but also get revenge from last year’s 2OT loss 24-31…. Making
it 3 losses in a row in this matchup (Joe Pa’s last year they beat OSU in’’11).
Jr. QB Christian “Hack” Hackenberg is still
reeling from his sophomore slump (12TDs, 15INTs, ~3,000yds passing but only a
55% comp.). This year he’s still only
completing 53% of his passes for 1,086 yds, but a better TD/INT ration of 7:2. Hack
is trying not to live up to his nickname and has thrown 6TDs in the last 3gms. Sophomore
WRs Chris “It’s a” Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton are the 1st and 2nd
targets for Hack, and have combined for 597yds, 3 TDs. Sr. TE Carter has also been stepping up
recently and has 9 grabs. The ground game is of course always a Penn State
football team’s first choice to move the ball, and averaging 157ypg, and True
Fr. Saquon Barkley(questionable, leg) has emerged from a crowded backfield to
lead w/ 373yds & 3TDs. Still, with
only 94 1st downs on the season (ranked 110th) and 31% 3rd
down conversion rate (121st), their punters Chris Gulla and Daniel
Pasquariello might be their co-MVP at this point in the season (37 punts
combined, 6.2ppg).
On D (depth chart), they’re getting it done against the run and
the pass, allowing 14.3ppg and 276ypg, and ranked #1 in FBS pass rush with 25
sacks. OSU is obviously their biggest
test of the season and Sr. DE Carl Nassib (10 sacks) will need to keep the
pressure on the QB (whomever Urban decides to throw out there). So. MLB Jason Cabinda (14tkls, 2sacks vs Army)
is their leader in the middle stopping the run, and rFR.CB John Reid (2Ints) So.
FS Marcus Allen (11tkls vs Rutgers, questionable vs OSU) lead the secondary.
Overall – Reasons Penn State will win/cover
Defense, defense and …a little Hack thrown in. Did a good job vs Indiana option QB AlexanderDiamont so maybe they can stop Barrett and OSU (on a few drives). This is the best front 4 that the Yuckeyes
have yet to face, allowing just over 3ypc and only giving up 150yds once, to Army,
who attempted and completed ONE pass for 32yds. Yikes! The OSU ground game has been the basic mode
of transportation to compensate for
inconsistent passing of Barrett and
Jones. The yards are going to be
gained by OSU in this game but it’s going to be a grind. Last year in the OT loss, the Suckeyes ran
for 219yds & 3TD, but it took a massive amount of carries (57).
Buckeyes
 |
JR. RB Ezekiel “Trademark” Elliot (15)
trots into the end
zone during the Maryland game,
10/10/15 at Ohio Stadium. OSU won 49-28.
|
JR Michael Thomas and SO Jalin Marshall are both big time WRs that have combined for 678yds & 6TDs. Braxton Miller has transitioned nicely into a WR/RB totaling 353yds & 3 scores. In addition to their aerial attack OSU's ground game is averaging 230ypg, and JR RB Ezekiel "Trademark" Elliott leads the way with 835yds & 10TDs (6.9ypc).
Defensively (depth chart), OSU is allowing 17.3ppg & 300ypg, and is led by SO LB Raekwon "C.R.E.A.M." McMillan (62 tckl, 1sack, 1PD), Tyquan "Doe" (29tkls, 5.5 sacks), and JR S Tyvis Powell (33Tkls, 2INTs, 2PDs).
Overall - Reasons Buckeyes will win/cover
Everyone thinks PSU’s O is below average (ranked 100 out
of 128 FBS teams) because we’re now in an era of high octane, football and we’re used to seeing the Baylors, TCUs, and
Texas Techs put up 800yrds of offense in one game.
Rock Star Fact: There are currently 15teams that are averaging 500+ypg, and that's a BIG jump in previous years in FBS:
Rock Star Fact: There are currently 15teams that are averaging 500+ypg, and that's a BIG jump in previous years in FBS:
2012-’14 had 22 (~7per
yr)
2007-’11 had 23 (~5 per yr)
2004-’08 had 17 ( ~3 per yr)
2004-’08 had 17 ( ~3 per yr)
Well, Penn State is and always has been a little old school and sticking with a run first smash first style of play. However, I don’t think that means they can’t open it up if they have to. The Lions really haven’t played any top 50 RPI talented teams since week 1 in which they lost to Temple, so the 5-1 record is a bit misleading. Hack hasn’t needed to throw much because opposing run D’s have stunk. Well, they’re going to have to pass vs OSU, most likely playing from behind, and the last time that happened, Hack, took a sack, 10 times vs Temple. After the game, Hack was quoted as saying, “I’m going to be a little sore for a couple days.”
The Duckeyes generate pressure without a problem, and surprisingly it's w/o Joey Bosa putting up numbers. His first sack was last week vs Maryland. In Bosa’s defense, he’s been facing double teams when rushing the QB at a rate 57% higher than last year. With so much attention devoted to Bosa, Tyquan “doe” Lewis has gathered 3sacks in the last 2. Bosa did have 2.5 sacks in lasts year’s matchup and I expect him to certainly draw a lot of attention from PSU blockers to avoid the same embarrassment… which will only open up holes for Tyquan “doe” to get to Hack for the sack.
ATS
PSU is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road gms, & 5-2 ATS in their last 7gms after allowing less than 20pts in the previous game. OSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5gms after scoring more than 40pts in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last 5gms overall. PSU is also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Columbus.
O/U. The total has gone under in five of PSU’s last six games.
For OSU, it's gone under in four of the
last five games. The OddsShark computer projects Ohio
State to win 40.9 to 18.4. The computer likes Ohio State to cover the spread
and the over on the point total.
However, the OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these
two teams.
OVER-OVERALL reasons for covering
As long as oddmakers are going to keep giving us a truckload of points, we're going to continue fading the Buckeyes. So I like taking the points with PSU
In the OT game last year @Penn State, they came storming back
after being down by 17 points. That's not likely to happen on the road and the
fact is OSU is treating this game seriously. So seriously that they are having
a BLACK OUT for the Fans. The Key in this contest is Urban Meyer who is a
genius coach, like him or not. Personally, everytime I hear his name, I cringe... not b/c I don't like him, but b/c I just can't wrap my mind around someone naming their child, Urban Frank. Really.
Prior to last week's game with Maryland the Buckeyes had scored just 6 TD's out of 16 chances in the Red Zone. Last week 6 TD's in 6 Red zone trips. The MAIN difference was using Barrett in a makeshift Wildcat Formation. Problem Solved. The 2013 game between these two (In Columbus) featured a 63-14 Ohio State Romp. I'm not saying we will see that kind of score Saturday but we will see OSU score some points. Penn State will get their share as well against a Buckeye D that has allowed 27.5 points per game over their last 2.
I simply Love this Number and in fact with the weather looking spiffy (A bit Chilly for the Fans, but that's OK because they will be wearing BLACK) for this 8pm EDT game, I'm rating this a full 5* play up to 51.5..
Prior to last week's game with Maryland the Buckeyes had scored just 6 TD's out of 16 chances in the Red Zone. Last week 6 TD's in 6 Red zone trips. The MAIN difference was using Barrett in a makeshift Wildcat Formation. Problem Solved. The 2013 game between these two (In Columbus) featured a 63-14 Ohio State Romp. I'm not saying we will see that kind of score Saturday but we will see OSU score some points. Penn State will get their share as well against a Buckeye D that has allowed 27.5 points per game over their last 2.
I simply Love this Number and in fact with the weather looking spiffy (A bit Chilly for the Fans, but that's OK because they will be wearing BLACK) for this 8pm EDT game, I'm rating this a full 5* play up to 51.5..
Prediction: 41-20
Singer’s Rock(5star) pick: over 47
Singer's Rock(1star) pick: OSU -16
SportsBetCappers.com - Sports Picks Forums, The Best Sports Expert Sports Picks, Sports Blogs, Sports Odds, Free Picks, and much more!
Singer's Rock(1star) pick: OSU -16
SportsBetCappers.com - Sports Picks Forums, The Best Sports Expert Sports Picks, Sports Blogs, Sports Odds, Free Picks, and much more!
