New Mexico State Aggies (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 OU) vs Mississippi Rebels (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OU)
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 10, 2015
Where: Vaught- Hemmingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Lines: Mississippi -43
Total: 69.5
The New Mexico State Aggies are not having the kind of year that they had hope for as they come in at 0-4 on the year, getting outscored by 15.6 ppg in their process. Their fortunes are not about to get any better as they are making a trip to SEC country to take on an angry bunch of Rebels that were crushed last week at flu ravaged Florida.
The New Mexico State Aggies are 0-4 on the year, but they had a real good shot at getting their first win of the year, but their defense let them down once again. Early in the 3rd quarter the Aggies kicked a FG, which put them up 29-14, but from that point on it wa all New Mexico, as the Lobos scored the next 24 points of the game to win 38-29. The Aggies were able to move the ball on the Lobos, especially on the ground where they piled up 308 yards on 7.9 ypc. Larry Rose III had an excellent game running the ball as he churned out 260 yards on the ground and had 3 TDs.
The Offense hasn’t been a problem for this team this year as they have averaged 30.2 ppg on 421.5 ypg, but it has been their defense that has really let them down this year so far as they coming in allowing 544.5 ypp and 45.8 ppg on the year, which is dead last in the nation. I wouldn’t expect defensive improvement vs this very strong rebels offense.
Losing to a team that had a flu bug go through their team is no real biggie, but when you are ranked 3rd in the nation and you lose to said team by 28 points, then that is an issue. This is a Rebel team that beat Alabama on the road a few weeks back, but just couldn’t get anything going vs the Gators. Florida’s QB Will Grier was one of the players hit with the flu, but still he was able to hit 82% of his passes for 271 yards, with 4 TDs and no INTs. In wish I could play that well with the Flu. Really what dome Mississippi in this game was the 4 turnovers that they had in the game.
QB Chad Kelly did throw a pick in the game, which was his 4th of the year, while he has thrown 11 TDs on the season so far. He only threw for 259 yards in the game, compared to the 341 yards he put up vs Alabama. The offense for the Rebels has been awesome this year overall, as they have put up 500.4 ypg and 45.8 ppg, which is the same amount of ppg that the Aggies have allowed.
Trends
New Mexico State is:
- 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win
- 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games
- 1-8 ATS their last 9 games as non-conference road dogs of 15 or more.
Mississippi is:
- 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games
- 9-3 ATS their last 12 games in October
- 12-5-1 ATS their last 18 at home vs teams with a losing road record.
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Free College Football Pick: [352] Mississippi -43
I don’t normally fool around with spreads this big but ya have to in this one. The Rebels are off a loss and just have Memphis on deck, so they should be able to take their frustrations out on this Aggies team. Let’s also look at what Ole Miss did to start the year when they beat UT-Martin 76-3 and Fresno State 73-21, plus they also put up 43 on Alabama’s defense. This is a very good offensive that will now take on the worst defense in the nation. This is a bad matchup for the Aggies and even though their offense has been good this year, I don’t see them putting up enough points to get the cover here.
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