East Carolina Pirates (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OU) vs SMU Mustangs (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 OU)
When: 4:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 3, 2015
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas
Lines: East Carolina -5.5
Total: 67
The East Carolina Pirates come in at 2-2 on the year, but one of their wins was a big one as they shocked Virginia Tech at home last week by a score of 35-28. The SMU Mustangs were not as fortunate as they lost at home to FCS foe James Madison, by a score of 48-45. SMU went just 1-11 last year and is now 1-3 to start this season.
James Summers Shocks Hokies
QB James Summers had a big game in the Pirates shocking home win over the Virginia Tech Hokies, who were 10 point favorites in the game. Summers is the backup to Blake Kemp and when Kemp went down James came in and hit 5 of 8 passes for 110 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 169 yards and another 2 TDs. His biggest run was a 41 yard scamper late in the 3rd quarter to put the Pirates up by 14 points heading into the final frame. Virginia Tech did score 7 points in the 4th, but it just wasn’t enough.
Ruffin McNeil had planned on giving him some playing time this week, he just hoped it wasn’t that way. The East Carolina offense is not the juggernaut it was last year as they rank just 82nd in the nation in total offense at 394 ypg after putting up 533 ypg last year. The Pirates also averaged 36 ppg last year and have put up just 27 ppg this year. Shane Carden is missed for sure.
SMU Off To A Bad Start
The SMU Mustangs are coming off a horrendous year in which they went just 1-11, getting outscored by 30 ppg in the process. This year they are a bit more competitive, but have still started just 1-3 on the year, which includes a hard fought 48-45 loss at home to one of the top FCS teams in the nation in James Madison. JMU led the game 17-14 at the half and then 41-31 before SMU took a 4 point lead with 2 minutes to go. That was all that JMU needed as they came back to win the game 48-45.
The SMU offense is far better than last year’s team that put up just 11 ppg and 269 ypg on the year, as they have averaged 454 ypg and 3.5 ppg so far. It is their defense that has been a problem, especially last week vs JMU when they allowed 729 yards, including 440 yards on the ground. For the year now SMU is dead last in the nation in total defense, allowing 603 ypg and 9th worst in points allowed, giving up 43.3 ppg.
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Pick: East Carolina -5.5
The East Carolina Pirates are not the same team they were a year ago and they could be without starting QB Blake Kep, but this team is still good enough to whip a bad SMU team . The Pirates have been very mediocre on defense this year, but I feel they will spap out in a big way vs an SMU defense that is the worst in the nation. Even though SMU lost by just 3 points to JMU, they were still outgained by over 200 yards in the game. The Pirates should have no problems picking apart this defense. The Pirates have allowed 424 ypg and 31 ppg on the year, but that is still far better than the defense of the Mustangs. I expect the Pirates to come up with just enough stops for them to win this one by at least 7 points.
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