Texas Longhorns (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OU) vs TCU Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OU)
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 3, 2015
Where: Aman G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Lines: TCU -15
Total: 71.5
The Texas Longhorns come in at 1-3 on the year and the seat under Charlie Strong seems to be getting hot. For the TCU Horned Frogs they have been dealing with many injuries on defense and at some point that may catch up to them in their quest for a National Title.
Texas had some high hopes this year and they were supposed to be led by their defense, but that really hasn’t panned out. They brought back just 5 starters from last year, but they did have plenty of talent on the unit. Still they have taken some time to gel and come in ranked 115th in the nation in yards allowed (483 ypg), 107th vs the pass, 105th vs the run and 106th in points allowed (35.2). The defense isn’t the only area that they have had issues as their offense comes in ranked 110th in total yards and 78th in scoring (29 ppg). The offense was also supposed to be a strength of this team as they had 8 starters back from last year, including the entire OL. From the 4th quarter in the game vs Cal through the Oklahoma State 3 point loss the Longhorns have played much better, but this team still has issues on both sides of the ball and if they aren’t corrected then Texas will not get a bowl invite this year.
The TCU Horned Frogs come in at 4-0 on the year, but their hopes of making it to the College football playoffs was almost dashed last week in their wild 55-52 win on the road vs Texas Tech. The Red Raiders really had them on the ropes and if it wasn’t for a miracle catch in the closing seconds by TCU then they would have lost that game. The big problem for the Horned Frogs in the last two games has been all the injuries to their defense and it has been the reason that they have allowed 89 points and 1115 yards in their last 2 games. Offensively there is nothing wrong with this team as they come in ranked 2nd in the nation in total yards (636.5 ypg) and 5th in scoring (51 ppg). The offense is led by Trevone Boykin, who should be one of the finalists for the Heisman trophy at the end of the year. So far he has thrown for 985 yards with 10 TDs and just 3 INT, while also rushing for 190 yards and 2 TDs.
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Trends
Texas is:
3-8 ATS their last 11 games in October
Road team is 1-4 ATS the last 5 in the series
TCU is:
12-1 ATS off a SU Win vs an Opponent off BB SU losses
10-1 ATS their last 11 home games
Pick: TCU -15
Texas looked better in their last 2 games, but still this team is a mess and their defense is horrible. How will they stop the unstoppable TCU offense in this one. The answer is... They won’t. I don’t even see the best SEC defenses being able to stop this group. The Texas offense has come alive of late, but still they have consistency issues on that side of the ball and will be taking on a very angry TCU defense that has allowed 90 points in their last 2 games combined. TCU nearly lost their chance at the national title last week and I expect them to fight back this week and make sure that the game isn’t close at all. I see a blowout in this one.
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